The Sir Alex Ferguson era of Manchester United is now a distant memory. The club, once driven on and off the pitch solely by the Scotsman's determination and sheer force of personality, has become a rudderless ship adrift on the changing seas of the Premier League.
Fans need to become realistic about the new world order of the English top flight. Despite trophies post-Cristiano Ronaldo, reality is that the landscape changed forever by the time he galloped away like the prized show pony he was. Massive investment has been made with Manchester City. Liverpool has fresh backing and ambition. Throughout the leagues, foreign investors have thrown everything they have at the Premier League riches on offer. Due in large part to the Television package distribution, teams at the bottom of the league, as well as those who have fallen from the top flight with their balloon payments, are now more financially capable than all but a few of the European powerhouses. If Manchester United had the same right as Real Madrid or Barcelona to negotiate their own Television rights deals, United would have unmatched financial clout around the globe. As it stands, the more equitable distribution of wealth in the Premier League leaves us with formerly lower or mid table clubs now capable of competing for a higher and higher quality of player.
While many United fans live in a world where every player wants to come and play for the club, reality doesn't match. Players want money. Players want trophies. Players want guaranteed playing time. While United can offer the money, so can countless other clubs. While United can offer trophies, so can countless other clubs. But even under Sir Alex, we saw the tide changing when it came to players wanting to come to United just for those two things. The promise of a chance wasn't the same as a promise of pitch time, which cost us when it came time for players like Eden Hazard to make a choice. At the time, I said that any player who needed to be coddled and promised playing time over an opportunity wasn't the type of player we needed, but I was wrong. Its the way players are today. They have been told from birth how they are the greatest thing since sliced bread, they are a star, and that they need to be prancing around the biggest stage regularly to gain the financial clout of endorsements that will keep themselves, their families, and agents flush as long as they live. They don't want managers with strong personalities to challenge their internal image. Players these days are basically now Peter Pan, child-men who never grow up and need to have their butt wiped for them. The landscape is changing, and for most top players, raised outside of England, United isn't the biggest fish in the sea anymore.
As these changes were becoming more apparent, we were still blind to the future, as Sir Alex covered up many of our ills simply with a hair dryer. When Fergie decided to call it a day, the warning signs became evident immediately. His replacement, a strong willed Scotsman named David Moyes, was meant to continue the Ferguson style reign. The gaffer was in complete control, the players pawns in his own game of chess, and everything would fall right into place as United kept sailing towards glory. The players however, had differing minds. The shackles were off. Moyes wasn't a world renowned trophy winner, a Fergie part two. He was just the new guy, who thought he was Sir Alex, and the players responded by going out on the pitch for themselves, and not their manager or the club. They thought they knew better. Their agent knew better. They were players for Manchester United, this guy was just some manager.
To make matters worse, as Sir Alex walked away, so did David Gil, the business architect of Fergie's later day teams. So while United should have cleaned house of players, they were left in limbo, with a new manager and a new chief executive, stagnating with the same squad. The die had been cast, and United was in deep trouble.
In response to the ship hitting an iceberg, United did something they never would have normally done, and replaced the manager. What the team needed was a manager the players feared and respected. Someone who could be a Fergie for the modern player. So, they went out and found a dictator from the Fergie era, and shoehorned him into position in an act of desperation. While Louis van Gaal has won titles and does rule with an iron fist, his glory years are well in the past. He also has a history of broken relationships with the players, the board, and the fans, all within a few short years of his arrival. While I warned my fellow fans of what was coming, the majority jumped up and down and celebrated our return to prominence. We needed a good rebuild. A dip would come, but we already had the dip before the rebuild, so we needed to reform the entire squad without the blip. A tall order for the manager and new chief executive, making the pressure even greater. Our response was to open up the check book, and throw money around willy nilly, all while turning over the past, building for a future world while mentally still in the past.
The demands are unrealistic, but thus is the position we find ourselves in. We need to achieve a top finish, play an attacking and attractive style of football, and win trophies, all while rebuilding and completely turning over the squad. A task difficult under even the best of circumstances, made nearly impossible when under the direction of van Gaal's iron fist, and Chief Executive Ed Woodward's naivety.
So where do we find ourselves today? We have a half assed squad of players in the middle of a rebuild. The team is rising or falling on the back of a young frenchman in his first season, admittedly bought for the future and not the present. The captain is being lambasted at every turn for doing his best to apply the managers wishes during this difficult time. The fans are baying for blood at every turn because they do not care what the reality of the situation is, they are spoiled from decades of dominance, the "glory" being more important than the "United". Most of our players are barely good enough to be role and bench players for United, let alone leading the charge toward the future. Players and agents see the troubles of United, and rightfully so are not interested in hitching their wagon to a truck parked facing the downward slope of a large hill. The rest of the league is becoming richer, more powerful, and better equipped to compete week in and week out. And when all other things are equal, Manchester is far less attractive than London or Madrid.
Doom and gloom, doom and gloom. But all is not lost. We have enough financial clout from all of our corporate deals via Woodward. We have a squad good enough to compete for the Champions League places, ready to be refreshed with more over priced talent to do a job in January. van Gaal, while stubborn and rigid, has the tactical knowledge and belief to achieve our basic demand of a top four finish. And we still have sellable assets who are not United quality, but could do a job for decent sides, allowing the rebuild to continue instead of stagnating.
Football has changed. United has changed. The fans need to change as well. We need to keep pressure on the board, manager, and players, but we do not need to constantly whine about every single moment. We do not need to throw the baby out with the bath water. We do not need to expect the moon when for now, the Earth will do. We are going through a difficult time, and we should understand that. Playing attractive football but failing to achieve a top four finish may make some fans happy in the interim, but it does nothing to move the club forward, and in the end would only lead to more bitching.
United fans have to come to the realization that the Sir Alex era they all remember and relish is over. It hurts. Its sad. But it is what it is.
Fergie is dead, and I don't feel too good myself, but there is still a pulse, and we need to throw all of our energy into achieving what is best for the club in the future. Not just what the fans want today with no foresight or care for tomorrow.
Saturday, December 12, 2015
Wednesday, August 21, 2013
THE TIDAL WAVE HAS REACHED OUR SHORE: THE CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF AMERICAN SOCCER COVERAGE
As Bob Dylan said, the times they are-a changin'. When I was a child, European football coverage was nearly non-existant in America. If you didn't have a satellite dish the size of a small house in your yard, you had no access to live matches. If you didn't have a major market newspaper in your hands Monday morning, you didn't have access to a small one or two inch section of the paper dedicated to match results with zero analysis attached.
I was 6 or 7 years old when the North American Soccer League took its final breath. It was another decade before the US held the World Cup, and another 2 years before Major League Soccer began. Though the current leader for continuously active soccer club (Milwaukee Wave indoor soccer team, 29 years of continual activity) in the US is a somewhat local team for me, for myself and most Americans of my age, I lived in a soccer wilderness, especially when it came to the game outside our borders.
The first live European match to come into my life wasn't until I was 21 years old, when I saw the 1999 Champions League Final between Bayern Munchen and Manchester United on ESPN. Prior to that, my European football experience had mainly been recorded English Premier League matches on a FOX Sports channel. With growing access, my passion for the game finally began to blossom. I was part of a niche group within a niche group from my perspective. First there was the small band of soccer fans in this country. Then there was the small band of European soccer fans. (Now the domestic fans/players are the niche of the niche)
In 2004, after I had firmly become a fan of the English game (and the Italian game), I started to pay attention to the domestic football scene in the US with the debut of "the American Pele" Freddy Adu. My life was complete, or so I had thought. I had a handful of English, Italian, and American games on my TV each week, most of them live. Thanks to the internet, I had people I could talk to about the game, leagues, players, and issues facing the game in the US. I thought things couldn't get any better.
14 years after my world began to change with increased access to the game, and my awareness of it, the tidal wave some of us thought would never reach our shores may have finally arrived.
NBC: Every English Premier League match is shown live on NBC Sports Network, the main NBC network, or through streaming on their website. MLS has a weekly slot on NBC Sports and an occasional spot on the big network for major matches. They have an EPL preview and review show, as well as their own version of the English classic Match of the Day. They have a weekly newsmagazine style show called MLS Insider. On occasion they have a show called MLS 36, a look into the lives of an MLS player or players over a 36 hour time period.
ESPN: World Cup 2014. More often than not a weekly showcase match for MLS. They have US home and Mexico away matches for CONCACAF World Cup qualifying. Through one of their many channels they often have a Liga MX (Mexico) match each week. They have just debuted ESPN FC, a daily show on the current hot topics in world football. Their online arm ESPN3 carries most of their live content while also carrying a few Dutch Erediviese and Brasilian Brasiliero Serie A matches, with occasional international friendlies and Liga MX matches.
FOX: They have UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League. CONCACAF Champions League, international friendlies, as well as being the home of the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. They have just debuted a daily show covering the hot topics of football called Fox Soccer Daily.
beIN SPORT: They show the top matches from Spain's La Liga, Italy's Serie A, and France's Ligue 1.
GOL TV: Home of the German Bundesliga, as well as some matches from the Argentinean and Brasilian leagues, often in English or Spanish.
MLS LIVE: Live streaming of every MLS match not on nationwide television.
For Spanish Language coverage we also have Univision, UniMas, and ESPN Deportes.
As you may have noticed seeing it all presented in one place, we have come out of the live soccer wilderness. And as for punditry, I haven't even covered the growing number of podcasts and blogs in the US giving us daily or weekly doses of the beautiful game.
The big boost we recently have received of course is access to every single live English Premier League Match. NBC Sports Network needed content, and has given it to us with soccer, bidding three times as much as the previous winning bid from FOX and ESPN for the EPL rights. NBC is proving itself to be committed to the game and its growth in America, mainly with the most watched sports league in the world, and on a smaller scale the domestic league in MLS. They have brought on board some of the best English language commentators and pundits to appease the soccer savvy public already in place.
ESPN, while having lost Champions League, EPL, and World Cup rights over the past few years, are seemingly still committed to the game themselves, and look to be players in the market when rights for the Champions League comes back into play, mainly on the back of current network head John Skipper. Their backing when Skipper inevitably moves on is still a question.
One of the many questions to be asked about this ever developing and changing landscape is the potential trickle down effect such exposure for the game to the masses may have on the domestic scene. A World Cup is coming up, something that usually captures Americas attention more than soccer normally does. But a commitment to MLS could change the sport domestically even more.
If MLS received a television deal similar to that of what the NHL has with NBC, the leagues salary cap would immediately double from that alone, allowing them to compete financially with any club in North or South America. With MLS Commissioner Don Garber's recent announcement of expansion, we see a look to the future of television rights. For years ESPN has told MLS that if they want to increase their television deal, they need to cover a larger portion of the important media markets in the country, in particular the south. At least 2 of the 4 expansion franchises Garber called for will surely be in this market.
With 250 million being thrown at the EPL, which sees similar ratings for any match not containing one of England's top clubs as most MLS matches do, a precedent and increased fee surely has been set. The trickle down aspect of TV could enhance the domestic game almost accidentally. If NBC and ESPN use their power to promote MLS better based on a larger financial investment on their part, the game itself and crossover fans could change the landscape even more.
But some questions that must be asked are, at what point might we start paying for the over saturation of the market? Can 5 channels with heavy emphasis on soccer really survive where not so long ago one barely could? And what if CBS tries to get their grubby little hands into the pie that everyone else is trying to break into the mainstream? If we truly are expanding beyond niche and into the mainstream, what is too far too fast? And could the future of the game in this country be mainly Eurocentric? Do the domestic league and national team have to grow along their own thread, or are they all linked?
Presumably over the next few years soccer will be finally getting a fair shake at the American sports landscape. With heavy hitters and financial backing, the break through many of us predicted and/or feared may finally be here. Daily shows giving punditry, live matches from a wide variety of leagues, and increasing fees for this content seems to be a final push toward a make or break moment for the beautiful game in America. We cannot deny that the landscape is shifting if not downright changing.
Whether or not the soccer tidal wave has finally reached our shore, or if it is nothing more than a fart in the bathtub is still to be seen, but the next few years will set the tone for the future of the sport in America. The time to get stuck in and promote the game with our friends and family and coworkers, as well as paying attention to our domestic game, is now. How big the wave really is may be completely up to us, those who have been paddling against the current for years.
Until next time, I will see you Off The Woodwork.
I was 6 or 7 years old when the North American Soccer League took its final breath. It was another decade before the US held the World Cup, and another 2 years before Major League Soccer began. Though the current leader for continuously active soccer club (Milwaukee Wave indoor soccer team, 29 years of continual activity) in the US is a somewhat local team for me, for myself and most Americans of my age, I lived in a soccer wilderness, especially when it came to the game outside our borders.
The first live European match to come into my life wasn't until I was 21 years old, when I saw the 1999 Champions League Final between Bayern Munchen and Manchester United on ESPN. Prior to that, my European football experience had mainly been recorded English Premier League matches on a FOX Sports channel. With growing access, my passion for the game finally began to blossom. I was part of a niche group within a niche group from my perspective. First there was the small band of soccer fans in this country. Then there was the small band of European soccer fans. (Now the domestic fans/players are the niche of the niche)
In 2004, after I had firmly become a fan of the English game (and the Italian game), I started to pay attention to the domestic football scene in the US with the debut of "the American Pele" Freddy Adu. My life was complete, or so I had thought. I had a handful of English, Italian, and American games on my TV each week, most of them live. Thanks to the internet, I had people I could talk to about the game, leagues, players, and issues facing the game in the US. I thought things couldn't get any better.
14 years after my world began to change with increased access to the game, and my awareness of it, the tidal wave some of us thought would never reach our shores may have finally arrived.
NBC: Every English Premier League match is shown live on NBC Sports Network, the main NBC network, or through streaming on their website. MLS has a weekly slot on NBC Sports and an occasional spot on the big network for major matches. They have an EPL preview and review show, as well as their own version of the English classic Match of the Day. They have a weekly newsmagazine style show called MLS Insider. On occasion they have a show called MLS 36, a look into the lives of an MLS player or players over a 36 hour time period.
ESPN: World Cup 2014. More often than not a weekly showcase match for MLS. They have US home and Mexico away matches for CONCACAF World Cup qualifying. Through one of their many channels they often have a Liga MX (Mexico) match each week. They have just debuted ESPN FC, a daily show on the current hot topics in world football. Their online arm ESPN3 carries most of their live content while also carrying a few Dutch Erediviese and Brasilian Brasiliero Serie A matches, with occasional international friendlies and Liga MX matches.
FOX: They have UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League. CONCACAF Champions League, international friendlies, as well as being the home of the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. They have just debuted a daily show covering the hot topics of football called Fox Soccer Daily.
beIN SPORT: They show the top matches from Spain's La Liga, Italy's Serie A, and France's Ligue 1.
GOL TV: Home of the German Bundesliga, as well as some matches from the Argentinean and Brasilian leagues, often in English or Spanish.
MLS LIVE: Live streaming of every MLS match not on nationwide television.
For Spanish Language coverage we also have Univision, UniMas, and ESPN Deportes.
As you may have noticed seeing it all presented in one place, we have come out of the live soccer wilderness. And as for punditry, I haven't even covered the growing number of podcasts and blogs in the US giving us daily or weekly doses of the beautiful game.
The big boost we recently have received of course is access to every single live English Premier League Match. NBC Sports Network needed content, and has given it to us with soccer, bidding three times as much as the previous winning bid from FOX and ESPN for the EPL rights. NBC is proving itself to be committed to the game and its growth in America, mainly with the most watched sports league in the world, and on a smaller scale the domestic league in MLS. They have brought on board some of the best English language commentators and pundits to appease the soccer savvy public already in place.
ESPN, while having lost Champions League, EPL, and World Cup rights over the past few years, are seemingly still committed to the game themselves, and look to be players in the market when rights for the Champions League comes back into play, mainly on the back of current network head John Skipper. Their backing when Skipper inevitably moves on is still a question.
One of the many questions to be asked about this ever developing and changing landscape is the potential trickle down effect such exposure for the game to the masses may have on the domestic scene. A World Cup is coming up, something that usually captures Americas attention more than soccer normally does. But a commitment to MLS could change the sport domestically even more.
If MLS received a television deal similar to that of what the NHL has with NBC, the leagues salary cap would immediately double from that alone, allowing them to compete financially with any club in North or South America. With MLS Commissioner Don Garber's recent announcement of expansion, we see a look to the future of television rights. For years ESPN has told MLS that if they want to increase their television deal, they need to cover a larger portion of the important media markets in the country, in particular the south. At least 2 of the 4 expansion franchises Garber called for will surely be in this market.
With 250 million being thrown at the EPL, which sees similar ratings for any match not containing one of England's top clubs as most MLS matches do, a precedent and increased fee surely has been set. The trickle down aspect of TV could enhance the domestic game almost accidentally. If NBC and ESPN use their power to promote MLS better based on a larger financial investment on their part, the game itself and crossover fans could change the landscape even more.
But some questions that must be asked are, at what point might we start paying for the over saturation of the market? Can 5 channels with heavy emphasis on soccer really survive where not so long ago one barely could? And what if CBS tries to get their grubby little hands into the pie that everyone else is trying to break into the mainstream? If we truly are expanding beyond niche and into the mainstream, what is too far too fast? And could the future of the game in this country be mainly Eurocentric? Do the domestic league and national team have to grow along their own thread, or are they all linked?
Presumably over the next few years soccer will be finally getting a fair shake at the American sports landscape. With heavy hitters and financial backing, the break through many of us predicted and/or feared may finally be here. Daily shows giving punditry, live matches from a wide variety of leagues, and increasing fees for this content seems to be a final push toward a make or break moment for the beautiful game in America. We cannot deny that the landscape is shifting if not downright changing.
Whether or not the soccer tidal wave has finally reached our shore, or if it is nothing more than a fart in the bathtub is still to be seen, but the next few years will set the tone for the future of the sport in America. The time to get stuck in and promote the game with our friends and family and coworkers, as well as paying attention to our domestic game, is now. How big the wave really is may be completely up to us, those who have been paddling against the current for years.
Until next time, I will see you Off The Woodwork.
Sunday, April 28, 2013
Dortmund, United, and the Biter
Lightning In A Bottle?
As soon as Mario Gotze was announced to be leaving Borussia Dortmund the questions began. The departure of Gotze was a blow, even without it being to German rival Bayern Munchen, but was it a sign of troubles to come? Dortmund overcame financial issues on the trail to building one of the best teams in Europe over the past 5 years under 45 year old Mainz 05 wunderkind Jurgen Klopp, but how tenuous that success is may be the real question. Coinciding with the rise of Dortmund was the rejuvenation of Bayern as European elite, and losing your star creative midfielder to them may be the first in a series of body blows sending Dortmund back to the lower echelon of the Bundesliga from whence they came.
Last season saw the departure of creative ace Shinji Kagawa to Manchester United, only a minor blow with Gotze still on board, but as Klopp is being eyed up by several clubs from around Europe and several more players look to head for the exit door this off season, can Dortmund keep their trajectory as one of the top 10 clubs in all of Europe? 4 goal hero against Real Madrid in the Champions League first leg semi-final, Robert Lewandowski, has only a year remaining on his contract. Despite Dortmund's claims otherwise, its hard to imagine they will allow him to walk away for free after next season when the large offers start rolling in this summer from the likes of Bayern Munich and Manchester United. Defensive rock Mats Hummels is also on the shopping list of every major club in Europe, as are defensive midfielder Sven Bender, central defender Neven Subotic, forward Marco Reus, all the while returned midfielder Nuri Sahin is only back on loan from Real Madrid. The Dortmund team could have a very different look next season.
While Leonardo Bittencourt is a fine little player in FIFA 13, can he really be expected to fill the massive boots of Gotze and Kagawa? Can Ilkay Gundogan continue to grow in the midfield? Can the additions and replacements Dortmund could make with the money brought in from transfers gel with a team that seems to be very close knit? Is the newfound financial stability strong enough to hold this team together over the next few years while making a push for domestic and European honors? Who would/could replace the German Mourinho, Jurgen Klopp?
As Borussia Dortmund attempt this week to seal a place in the Champions League Final, most likely against fellow German club Bayern Munchen, one has to wonder, is Dortmund a team of the present as well as the future, or did they just happen to capture lightning in a bottle? While many people I respect believe this is just the beginning for Dortmund, I have to say, it feels more like the beginning of the end to me.
Sir Alex The Magnificent!
As Manchester United wait to officially lift top flight trophy #20 when they face Swansea at home in May, the autopsy on the season has already begun.
When the season began, Manchester City manager Roberto Mancini all but granted United would lift the trophy based upon the signing of Robin Van Persie from Arsenal. What is interesting about Mancini's premonition is that since United won the title, the EPL table minus club top scorer has come out, and subtracting Van Persie's league leading goals from United still would see them top of the table, and see Manchester City actually falter to third behind Arsenal. It could be said that the title was won before a ball was even kicked this season based on perception and the ultimate Fergie mind game alone.
But what may be the most impressive part of this seasons record pushing title win by Manchester United, is that as they lift their 13th EPL crown, and the 13th title of the Ferguson era, Sir Alex now has as many top flight titles as the third placed team in all of England (Arsenal) all by himself. Given his current pace of lifting the trophy, Sir Alex could tie or even better Liverpool's second place standing all by himself in just another decade at the helm of Manchester United.
While not likely, would anyone suggest it is out of the realm of possibility? For all the hate he receives for his brilliance from opposing fans, it is time they all bow down to the genius of longevity and dominance that is Sir Alex Ferguson. In fact, "Sir Alex" is no longer an impressive enough title for the man who just can't keep from lifting silverware. The history books should forevermore refer to him as Sir Alex the Magnificent.
The Damned United
Every season as I do my MLS preview, as always happens in a league based on parity, I get a few predictions miserably wrong. So far this season, no prediction has been as horribly wrong as that of the fate of DC United. Having played 8 matches, DC are firmly and miserably in the basement of MLS, not just the Eastern Conference.
After 8 matches, DC have only scored 4 goals, none on the road, and have a negative goal differential of -3 at home, -6 on the road. With one of last seasons star men Andy Najar now in Belgium, and another, Chris Pontius, currently on the injured list, the turnaround for DC may be more difficult a task than expected. Manager Ben Olsen has even gone so far as to throw his hands up already and suggest that the only way to turn the season around is if the players begin to perform, and such a turnaround is solely up to them.
While Olsen is no Brian Clough, this season does seem to have an ill-fated feeling about it. Time will tell if DC can make enough of an adjustment to still make the playoffs, but MLS history tells us that if DC is still in the basement after 10 matches, this will be another wasted season in the nations capitol.
To Sell Or Not To Sell
When does a players talent outweigh his status as injury prone? If a player is "world class" when playing, can a club continually tolerate a player missing 10-20 matches a season due to injury? Should a club cut their losses and sell the player for less money than they could if he was always fit, replacing him with a lesser but healthy player?
Now think about that scenario again, but instead of the player missing a dozen matches a year or more with fitness issues, what if it was due to suspension based on behavioral problems?
Once again Luis Suarez has made the news for his on field antics, and once again he is facing a lengthy ban.
In recent weeks the Uruguayan forward has received a 10 match ban from the English FA for biting Chelsea defender Branislov Ivanovic, and may face a ban from FIFA after an incident in an international where he obviously and intentionally punched another player. This, coming on the back of his performances in recent years which have included an intentional handball in the World Cup followed by a spastic celebration of his feat, the racial abuse of Manchester United defender Patrice Evra which resulted in an 8 match ban, and the biting of PSV's Otman Bakkal which got him dubbed "the cannibal of Ajax" and resulted in a 7 match ban.
In most of these cases, Suarez has followed his actions with a quick apology. Much easier to do than change your behavior, no? So while Liverpool appear willing to stand behind the only top level talent they have, from a club as well as a public relations point of view, one has to wonder if the cost of the genius, being madness, is too high. Should the obvious pattern of behavior from the forward continue, the day will quickly arrive where Liverpool no longer have the option of selling Suarez. Common sense says that the time to cash in is now, while they still can. But this is Liverpool, and common sense does not exist.
Thank you for reading, and until next time, I will see you Off The Woodwork.
As soon as Mario Gotze was announced to be leaving Borussia Dortmund the questions began. The departure of Gotze was a blow, even without it being to German rival Bayern Munchen, but was it a sign of troubles to come? Dortmund overcame financial issues on the trail to building one of the best teams in Europe over the past 5 years under 45 year old Mainz 05 wunderkind Jurgen Klopp, but how tenuous that success is may be the real question. Coinciding with the rise of Dortmund was the rejuvenation of Bayern as European elite, and losing your star creative midfielder to them may be the first in a series of body blows sending Dortmund back to the lower echelon of the Bundesliga from whence they came.
Last season saw the departure of creative ace Shinji Kagawa to Manchester United, only a minor blow with Gotze still on board, but as Klopp is being eyed up by several clubs from around Europe and several more players look to head for the exit door this off season, can Dortmund keep their trajectory as one of the top 10 clubs in all of Europe? 4 goal hero against Real Madrid in the Champions League first leg semi-final, Robert Lewandowski, has only a year remaining on his contract. Despite Dortmund's claims otherwise, its hard to imagine they will allow him to walk away for free after next season when the large offers start rolling in this summer from the likes of Bayern Munich and Manchester United. Defensive rock Mats Hummels is also on the shopping list of every major club in Europe, as are defensive midfielder Sven Bender, central defender Neven Subotic, forward Marco Reus, all the while returned midfielder Nuri Sahin is only back on loan from Real Madrid. The Dortmund team could have a very different look next season.
While Leonardo Bittencourt is a fine little player in FIFA 13, can he really be expected to fill the massive boots of Gotze and Kagawa? Can Ilkay Gundogan continue to grow in the midfield? Can the additions and replacements Dortmund could make with the money brought in from transfers gel with a team that seems to be very close knit? Is the newfound financial stability strong enough to hold this team together over the next few years while making a push for domestic and European honors? Who would/could replace the German Mourinho, Jurgen Klopp?
As Borussia Dortmund attempt this week to seal a place in the Champions League Final, most likely against fellow German club Bayern Munchen, one has to wonder, is Dortmund a team of the present as well as the future, or did they just happen to capture lightning in a bottle? While many people I respect believe this is just the beginning for Dortmund, I have to say, it feels more like the beginning of the end to me.
Sir Alex The Magnificent!
As Manchester United wait to officially lift top flight trophy #20 when they face Swansea at home in May, the autopsy on the season has already begun.
When the season began, Manchester City manager Roberto Mancini all but granted United would lift the trophy based upon the signing of Robin Van Persie from Arsenal. What is interesting about Mancini's premonition is that since United won the title, the EPL table minus club top scorer has come out, and subtracting Van Persie's league leading goals from United still would see them top of the table, and see Manchester City actually falter to third behind Arsenal. It could be said that the title was won before a ball was even kicked this season based on perception and the ultimate Fergie mind game alone.
But what may be the most impressive part of this seasons record pushing title win by Manchester United, is that as they lift their 13th EPL crown, and the 13th title of the Ferguson era, Sir Alex now has as many top flight titles as the third placed team in all of England (Arsenal) all by himself. Given his current pace of lifting the trophy, Sir Alex could tie or even better Liverpool's second place standing all by himself in just another decade at the helm of Manchester United.
While not likely, would anyone suggest it is out of the realm of possibility? For all the hate he receives for his brilliance from opposing fans, it is time they all bow down to the genius of longevity and dominance that is Sir Alex Ferguson. In fact, "Sir Alex" is no longer an impressive enough title for the man who just can't keep from lifting silverware. The history books should forevermore refer to him as Sir Alex the Magnificent.
The Damned United
Every season as I do my MLS preview, as always happens in a league based on parity, I get a few predictions miserably wrong. So far this season, no prediction has been as horribly wrong as that of the fate of DC United. Having played 8 matches, DC are firmly and miserably in the basement of MLS, not just the Eastern Conference.
After 8 matches, DC have only scored 4 goals, none on the road, and have a negative goal differential of -3 at home, -6 on the road. With one of last seasons star men Andy Najar now in Belgium, and another, Chris Pontius, currently on the injured list, the turnaround for DC may be more difficult a task than expected. Manager Ben Olsen has even gone so far as to throw his hands up already and suggest that the only way to turn the season around is if the players begin to perform, and such a turnaround is solely up to them.
While Olsen is no Brian Clough, this season does seem to have an ill-fated feeling about it. Time will tell if DC can make enough of an adjustment to still make the playoffs, but MLS history tells us that if DC is still in the basement after 10 matches, this will be another wasted season in the nations capitol.
To Sell Or Not To Sell
When does a players talent outweigh his status as injury prone? If a player is "world class" when playing, can a club continually tolerate a player missing 10-20 matches a season due to injury? Should a club cut their losses and sell the player for less money than they could if he was always fit, replacing him with a lesser but healthy player?
Now think about that scenario again, but instead of the player missing a dozen matches a year or more with fitness issues, what if it was due to suspension based on behavioral problems?
Once again Luis Suarez has made the news for his on field antics, and once again he is facing a lengthy ban.
In recent weeks the Uruguayan forward has received a 10 match ban from the English FA for biting Chelsea defender Branislov Ivanovic, and may face a ban from FIFA after an incident in an international where he obviously and intentionally punched another player. This, coming on the back of his performances in recent years which have included an intentional handball in the World Cup followed by a spastic celebration of his feat, the racial abuse of Manchester United defender Patrice Evra which resulted in an 8 match ban, and the biting of PSV's Otman Bakkal which got him dubbed "the cannibal of Ajax" and resulted in a 7 match ban.
In most of these cases, Suarez has followed his actions with a quick apology. Much easier to do than change your behavior, no? So while Liverpool appear willing to stand behind the only top level talent they have, from a club as well as a public relations point of view, one has to wonder if the cost of the genius, being madness, is too high. Should the obvious pattern of behavior from the forward continue, the day will quickly arrive where Liverpool no longer have the option of selling Suarez. Common sense says that the time to cash in is now, while they still can. But this is Liverpool, and common sense does not exist.
Thank you for reading, and until next time, I will see you Off The Woodwork.
Sunday, April 14, 2013
Development Of An Empire
In recent weeks I have written about the USMNT and how the results and changes amongst the youth of the country matter much more than the results of Jurgen Klinsmann's men, and also about scouting through the prism of Stoke City, how youth and coaching should be linked through style and future consideration. This week I combine the two topics a little, and discuss the future of the USMNT from youth level up, and how managerial changes and style may need to be undertaken in the near future.
Hard working. Fit. Lack of ego. Willingness to follow orders. These are the ways you hear people describe American footballers. Technically gifted. Possession minded. Tactically inventive and malleable. These are not things you ever hear when discussion of American players arises. Why is that?
Not that long ago, when I was a kid, youth soccer was played 11 v 11 on full sized pitches. If you touched the ball a few times a match you felt rather excited. Coaches ranged from parents who were begged into taking the position, or more often than not, people who had little to no knowledge of the game itself. Basic rules were barely understood, and tactics bordered on basketball or gridiron philosophies of "you give it a go, then we will give it a go".
Luckily times have advanced a little since then. 6 v 6 on smaller pitches is now much more common in under eights, coaches normally have a grasp of the rules, even if the game is itself still a bit foreign to most of them, and some coaches even are attempting to develop technical skill. One issue we still have (all the way to the top) is the faulty belief that a foreign accent means quality in coaching, ignoring the deep youth issues places like England, Scotland, and Ireland have found themselves in over the past several decades, but for the most part, progress has been made since I was a kid.
Where we are still falling down is development of youth technical skill, in particular ball skills and decision making while under pressure. While the common perception currently in the game is that every nation and every youth set up should mirror that of Barcelona or Spain, reality is that most countries are not set up that way from youth on, nor should they be. There are many ways to play winning and/or pleasing football. So while technical gifts and footballing brains under pressure need to be addressed from youth up in the States, we also must consider what best is the way forward for the US character and national identity.
The USMNT itself has come a long way since my youth. Our philosophy used to be "If it moves, kick it. If it keeps moving, kick it again." Our style was physical and pesky, if not strong and dirty. Set pieces, long balls, and luck were an important part of our game. As Landon Donovan emerged, the US changed course some. What used to be Tab Ramos or Claudio Reyna and 10 brutes became Donovan and semi-skilled players still aware of the physical side, but also much more reliant upon an actual tactic, counter attacking at pace. This is where I believe we should continue to develop the US national identity.
Even the more skillful of US players aren't known for their skill at pace. While many have pace, and some have technical gifts, few if any have ever been able to apply those gifts into a package. Run down the wing with your head down at pace, and when you can, swing the ball into the box the best you can. When the Americans can perform skill at pace and under pressure, then we will become a footballing country to be taken notice of.
The question becomes how do we challenge our youth without discouraging them? Many kids these days have too many options when it comes to entertainment. The simple idea of my youth of going out to play is often a thought of the past. Getting youth players to put in the effort is a major stumbling block. But more importantly when that bridge is crossed, how do we test their developing skills while under pressure or at pace? In many countries children play in streets, alleys, doorways, or wherever they can, with balls of socks, empty cans, or anything that will roll. Close control is learned under pressure from your friends or neighbors desperate for the ball themselves snapping at your heels. In America, the game is still seen as expensive and elitist. It's been replaced by Lacrosse or Polo by the more wealthy, but it is still mainly a game of the upper and middle classes, and surely not the poor. When you take kids used to getting their own way, used to every entertainment option, and used to being coddled and protected, putting them under pressure and making them fight for every touch and every control can harm their delicate young ego.
Another issue we face is that often at youth level the sexes are combined in sport due to boys not being physically overpowering yet. While this may be part of the reason our girls develop well and are amongst the elite, it may very well be a hinderance to the boys. Again, delicate little egos come to play. I've seen boys shut down on the pitch when tackled or dispossessed by a girl, sometimes after their fathers ignorant taunting. I've seen many young boys go in hard and heavy against other boys, but attempt only the mildest of pressure when facing girls. Even at young ages, boys understand roles differ between males and females, and the way you treat a girl differs to that of how you treat other boys.
It is my belief that from youth up the US needs to put an emphasis on doing everything under pressure and at pace. Technical skill, set pieces, and counter attacking needs to be the mandate to our coaches who instruct those 12 or older. Separation of the sexes needs to be considered whenever possible. As these young players develop and advance through the youth ranks, our coaches should also develop and advance. The style of our U17's should be the same as our U21's, U23's, and senior national side. Coaches should be given opportunities to advance, hiring from within the system should be considered of paramount importance. A culture of growing our own should be undertaken. Hiring MLS or foreign managers should become a thing of the past. Style would remain consistent, which is as important as our technical development.
In a perfect world, the US would build a national youth center to rival those of the French, Spanish, or Germans. Coaches and players would all learn and develop together. Some day possibly even a national stadium could be built akin to the Azteca, with the option still there for matches across the country when need arise. When particularly talented players arise our tactical and technical outlook would be tweaked. Coaches not willing or able to join the modernization of the game in the country need to be put out to pasture. The game needs to change in America, and it needs to start now.
Well, that's my two cents worth anyway. Until next time, I'll see you Off The Woodwork.
Hard working. Fit. Lack of ego. Willingness to follow orders. These are the ways you hear people describe American footballers. Technically gifted. Possession minded. Tactically inventive and malleable. These are not things you ever hear when discussion of American players arises. Why is that?
Not that long ago, when I was a kid, youth soccer was played 11 v 11 on full sized pitches. If you touched the ball a few times a match you felt rather excited. Coaches ranged from parents who were begged into taking the position, or more often than not, people who had little to no knowledge of the game itself. Basic rules were barely understood, and tactics bordered on basketball or gridiron philosophies of "you give it a go, then we will give it a go".
Luckily times have advanced a little since then. 6 v 6 on smaller pitches is now much more common in under eights, coaches normally have a grasp of the rules, even if the game is itself still a bit foreign to most of them, and some coaches even are attempting to develop technical skill. One issue we still have (all the way to the top) is the faulty belief that a foreign accent means quality in coaching, ignoring the deep youth issues places like England, Scotland, and Ireland have found themselves in over the past several decades, but for the most part, progress has been made since I was a kid.
Where we are still falling down is development of youth technical skill, in particular ball skills and decision making while under pressure. While the common perception currently in the game is that every nation and every youth set up should mirror that of Barcelona or Spain, reality is that most countries are not set up that way from youth on, nor should they be. There are many ways to play winning and/or pleasing football. So while technical gifts and footballing brains under pressure need to be addressed from youth up in the States, we also must consider what best is the way forward for the US character and national identity.
The USMNT itself has come a long way since my youth. Our philosophy used to be "If it moves, kick it. If it keeps moving, kick it again." Our style was physical and pesky, if not strong and dirty. Set pieces, long balls, and luck were an important part of our game. As Landon Donovan emerged, the US changed course some. What used to be Tab Ramos or Claudio Reyna and 10 brutes became Donovan and semi-skilled players still aware of the physical side, but also much more reliant upon an actual tactic, counter attacking at pace. This is where I believe we should continue to develop the US national identity.
Even the more skillful of US players aren't known for their skill at pace. While many have pace, and some have technical gifts, few if any have ever been able to apply those gifts into a package. Run down the wing with your head down at pace, and when you can, swing the ball into the box the best you can. When the Americans can perform skill at pace and under pressure, then we will become a footballing country to be taken notice of.
The question becomes how do we challenge our youth without discouraging them? Many kids these days have too many options when it comes to entertainment. The simple idea of my youth of going out to play is often a thought of the past. Getting youth players to put in the effort is a major stumbling block. But more importantly when that bridge is crossed, how do we test their developing skills while under pressure or at pace? In many countries children play in streets, alleys, doorways, or wherever they can, with balls of socks, empty cans, or anything that will roll. Close control is learned under pressure from your friends or neighbors desperate for the ball themselves snapping at your heels. In America, the game is still seen as expensive and elitist. It's been replaced by Lacrosse or Polo by the more wealthy, but it is still mainly a game of the upper and middle classes, and surely not the poor. When you take kids used to getting their own way, used to every entertainment option, and used to being coddled and protected, putting them under pressure and making them fight for every touch and every control can harm their delicate young ego.
Another issue we face is that often at youth level the sexes are combined in sport due to boys not being physically overpowering yet. While this may be part of the reason our girls develop well and are amongst the elite, it may very well be a hinderance to the boys. Again, delicate little egos come to play. I've seen boys shut down on the pitch when tackled or dispossessed by a girl, sometimes after their fathers ignorant taunting. I've seen many young boys go in hard and heavy against other boys, but attempt only the mildest of pressure when facing girls. Even at young ages, boys understand roles differ between males and females, and the way you treat a girl differs to that of how you treat other boys.
It is my belief that from youth up the US needs to put an emphasis on doing everything under pressure and at pace. Technical skill, set pieces, and counter attacking needs to be the mandate to our coaches who instruct those 12 or older. Separation of the sexes needs to be considered whenever possible. As these young players develop and advance through the youth ranks, our coaches should also develop and advance. The style of our U17's should be the same as our U21's, U23's, and senior national side. Coaches should be given opportunities to advance, hiring from within the system should be considered of paramount importance. A culture of growing our own should be undertaken. Hiring MLS or foreign managers should become a thing of the past. Style would remain consistent, which is as important as our technical development.
In a perfect world, the US would build a national youth center to rival those of the French, Spanish, or Germans. Coaches and players would all learn and develop together. Some day possibly even a national stadium could be built akin to the Azteca, with the option still there for matches across the country when need arise. When particularly talented players arise our tactical and technical outlook would be tweaked. Coaches not willing or able to join the modernization of the game in the country need to be put out to pasture. The game needs to change in America, and it needs to start now.
Well, that's my two cents worth anyway. Until next time, I'll see you Off The Woodwork.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
Scouting The Future
This week, Stoke City manager Tony Pulis was kicked when he was down. With his club in the grips of a death rattle toward the relegation zone, while in the throngs of the poorest run of form by any top flight English League club in 2013, it has become common place for fans of the club to take to the airwaves of national and local radio to complain about the clubs style of play and the tactical mind of Pulis. Pundits make sure they let you know how much they like Pulis, right before they stick the knife in and twist, over where Stoke seem to be headed. All of this is to be expected with the club in such a state, but what isn't to be expected, is your chief scout Lindsay Parsons laying bare to his gripes publicly, when the club needs to be its most unified for Premier League survival.
Parsons let the world know that he was not a fan in any shape or form of the style of play employed by Stoke City under Tony Pulis, and that many of the transfer targets suggested to the club from a scouting perspective had been declined due to size and technical ability issues. Not that the players were too big and too unskilled, but that they were too small and too skilled to play the Stoke way. Parsons even went so far as to suggest which players Stoke passed upon, including Demba Ba and Hatem Ben Arfa.
Unless you are a know-nothing couch jockey named Alan making a living talking out of your backside on English telly, you wouldn't have had to be a rocket scientist to have thrown those names out to any manager in the EPL a few years ago, so it would be easy to make jokes about Parsons and move on. But I believe the point Parsons was making, though completely unnecessary to make in the public eye, is much deeper than many may realize, and a very important subject to discuss.
Sticking with Stoke City for a moment, I'd like to play a little game called "what if". What if Tony Pulis were to get sacked? What then for Stoke City football club? If the players brought in from youth team to the senior side have been brought in with one style of play in mind, and a limited skill or stature set, surely any new manager brought in would have to be in the exact same mold as Tony Pulis. If not prepared to play with big strong physical players designed to live and breathe on set plays, the new manager would not only have to over turn the majority of the first team, but also every 9 year old who has walked in the door under Pulis's tenure. Vast amounts of time and money would need to be spent with the club in perpetual limbo as a reboot was performed.
On the other end of the spectrum, what if Arsene Wenger walks away from or gets sacked from Arsenal? Could "Big Sam" Allardyce or Jose Mourinho be given the job? Short answer, no. While "Big Sam" claims he could manage Real Madrid to glory, (I'm the one person on the planet who believes he could, partly because I believe almost anyone on earth could do as such) his style or that of Mourinho's does not fit with that of Arsenal. Be it Arsenal or Barcelona, when a 9 year old boy walks in the door, he is trained to play football the same way as he would in the reserves or with the first team. The game is built upon passing, possession, and technical skill, the opponent and their style of play be damned. While many consider this to be a flaw in the Wenger mind set, any new manager would have no choice but to play "the Arsenal way", without completely gutting and rebuilding the club from smallest child all the way up to the tea lady. (The tea lady is the most important person at a club, is she not? Or have I been misinformed?) While a much simpler task than the Stoke rebuild, if you don't hire the right "type" of manager, someone willing to play an attacking possession style, you are basically doomed to difficulties.
In the middle of the road, but a footballing oddity, are the clubs like Manchester United, Real Madrid, and now the likes of Chelsea, PSG, and Manchester City. (Even Hollywood FC Bayern Munchen to some extent, though Germany is a bit of Alice's Wonderland to the Dorothy's OZ that most football lives in.) What if Sir Alex Ferguson retires, Jose Mourinho walks, Roberto Mancini and Carlo Ancelotti get sacked, and the Chelsea flavor of the month gets persuaded by Uncle Roman's good buddy Vladmir Putin's good buddies to hang themselves? Quite simply, a cavalcade of top pros come in and out the door while the clubs continue to buy the best available talent they can find from youngest trainee to most revered veteran. When you buy the best available talent and employ whatever system you need to in order to be successful on the pitch, manager changes do little to shake the natural order of the club. (Fergie is a special case, I agree, but the aftermath of his going wouldn't change from all the rest.)
There are some glitches that will arise from this system as well, using Manchester United as an example, you may spend far over the odds for a player like Bebe because you believe another big club is sniffing around him. Or you may be renowned for your wingers over the generations, only to gallop to the current EPL title without any winger of note. Or you may bring in Juan Sebastien Veron for a hefty fee, only to misuse him due to his being overly gifted. There are bumps in the road with any system. Though a seemingly superior ideal, very few clubs can afford such a system, possibly not even Real Madrid or Manchester United.
In an earlier piece here on Off The Woodwork, I made the comment that Jurgen Klinsmann's performance with the US Mens National Team cannot be judged today, but will be judged in the future when the youth of today become the stars of the 2026 or 2030 World Cup. This is a slightly different spin on the concept that is my present topic, where you are not buying or scouting for a certain type of player, but scouting for a certain type of player while also trying to build those kinds of players from the lowest of youth levels on. Its an interesting sub topic, but the scope, desires, and challenges of national team scouting and identity differ in several ways to that of club football.
Over the years we have seen many clubs in English football reach the promised land of the top flight, only to change course midstream in order to play a more beautiful game. While the 70's, 80's, and 90's were littered with such clubs, I'd like to take a moment to look at two more recent top flight clubs to have the crisis of style, both concerning the aforementioned "Big Sam".
When "Big Sam" was appointed manager of West Ham United, many of the Hammers faithful were left uninspired. There was a famed academy at WHU, and the club was known for a certain style of play. Then in walked Sam, with a new vision. He pointed out that the beautiful football had seen the club relegated several times and seen many managers come and go based more on style than results. As the season has wound down many names have been floated as a replacement for Sam in the offseason, based on the desire of the fans to see something "worth watching". But the fact remains, WHU are in a solid place again in the EPL, with no danger of relegation or glory. The long ball football with occasional bursts of flair has worked. It gained promotion. It gained another season in the top flight.
Another link to the big man comes from the plight of Blackburn. Under Allardyce the club was consistently in the league. No glory, no threat of the drop. Then that was no longer good enough. The new owners of Blackburn (Venky's) wanted to play a more attractive and technical style of football. They wanted flair players like Ronaldinho to grace their pitch. In the short time since the replacement of "Big Sam", the club has gone through a succession of managers, been relegated once, and seem doomed to back-to-back relegations, finding them in England's League One, when they had been safely a top flight club just a few seasons before.
While this could be seen as a cautionary tale to anyone who employs Tony Pulis, Sam Allardyce, Alan Curbishly, or many other fine status quo managers, or any owner or chairman who fancies that their club starts playing beautiful football, I see this as a deeper issue than just the whim of a new ethos. I see this as a scouting failure at the deepest level. If a club, their fans, the owner, or the manager feel a change is needed once their "level" has been reached, be it top flight or just league football, there is no quick fix. Even bucket loads of cash aren't a quick fix if the infrastructure of the club is not properly supported for the desired changes.
Should Tony Pulis feel Stoke need a change, to be more attacking or skillful, as some of his purchases this past season seem to indicate, then shame on him for not effecting change from the bottom to the top himself. But also shame on Lindsay Parsons for not pushing harder with potential transfer targets that could affect that change. Shame on Parsons for not walking away from the job if it couldn't be done without a hand tied behind the back.
When it comes to changing the culture and style of any football club from what has gotten it promoted or solidified in a division, there is no quick fix. In my opinion it can only be done slowly, over years, with proper scouting from the youngest of youth to the most veteran first team player. There will be growing pains in such an endeavor, and perhaps some sliding down from the level the club has become accustomed to. But when it comes to addressing the style of any football club, I am of the firm belief that you need to scout the future, and if Tony Pulis finds himself looking for new employment, then so should Lindsay Parsons.
Until next time, I'll see you Off The Woodwork.
Parsons let the world know that he was not a fan in any shape or form of the style of play employed by Stoke City under Tony Pulis, and that many of the transfer targets suggested to the club from a scouting perspective had been declined due to size and technical ability issues. Not that the players were too big and too unskilled, but that they were too small and too skilled to play the Stoke way. Parsons even went so far as to suggest which players Stoke passed upon, including Demba Ba and Hatem Ben Arfa.
Unless you are a know-nothing couch jockey named Alan making a living talking out of your backside on English telly, you wouldn't have had to be a rocket scientist to have thrown those names out to any manager in the EPL a few years ago, so it would be easy to make jokes about Parsons and move on. But I believe the point Parsons was making, though completely unnecessary to make in the public eye, is much deeper than many may realize, and a very important subject to discuss.
Sticking with Stoke City for a moment, I'd like to play a little game called "what if". What if Tony Pulis were to get sacked? What then for Stoke City football club? If the players brought in from youth team to the senior side have been brought in with one style of play in mind, and a limited skill or stature set, surely any new manager brought in would have to be in the exact same mold as Tony Pulis. If not prepared to play with big strong physical players designed to live and breathe on set plays, the new manager would not only have to over turn the majority of the first team, but also every 9 year old who has walked in the door under Pulis's tenure. Vast amounts of time and money would need to be spent with the club in perpetual limbo as a reboot was performed.
On the other end of the spectrum, what if Arsene Wenger walks away from or gets sacked from Arsenal? Could "Big Sam" Allardyce or Jose Mourinho be given the job? Short answer, no. While "Big Sam" claims he could manage Real Madrid to glory, (I'm the one person on the planet who believes he could, partly because I believe almost anyone on earth could do as such) his style or that of Mourinho's does not fit with that of Arsenal. Be it Arsenal or Barcelona, when a 9 year old boy walks in the door, he is trained to play football the same way as he would in the reserves or with the first team. The game is built upon passing, possession, and technical skill, the opponent and their style of play be damned. While many consider this to be a flaw in the Wenger mind set, any new manager would have no choice but to play "the Arsenal way", without completely gutting and rebuilding the club from smallest child all the way up to the tea lady. (The tea lady is the most important person at a club, is she not? Or have I been misinformed?) While a much simpler task than the Stoke rebuild, if you don't hire the right "type" of manager, someone willing to play an attacking possession style, you are basically doomed to difficulties.
In the middle of the road, but a footballing oddity, are the clubs like Manchester United, Real Madrid, and now the likes of Chelsea, PSG, and Manchester City. (Even Hollywood FC Bayern Munchen to some extent, though Germany is a bit of Alice's Wonderland to the Dorothy's OZ that most football lives in.) What if Sir Alex Ferguson retires, Jose Mourinho walks, Roberto Mancini and Carlo Ancelotti get sacked, and the Chelsea flavor of the month gets persuaded by Uncle Roman's good buddy Vladmir Putin's good buddies to hang themselves? Quite simply, a cavalcade of top pros come in and out the door while the clubs continue to buy the best available talent they can find from youngest trainee to most revered veteran. When you buy the best available talent and employ whatever system you need to in order to be successful on the pitch, manager changes do little to shake the natural order of the club. (Fergie is a special case, I agree, but the aftermath of his going wouldn't change from all the rest.)
There are some glitches that will arise from this system as well, using Manchester United as an example, you may spend far over the odds for a player like Bebe because you believe another big club is sniffing around him. Or you may be renowned for your wingers over the generations, only to gallop to the current EPL title without any winger of note. Or you may bring in Juan Sebastien Veron for a hefty fee, only to misuse him due to his being overly gifted. There are bumps in the road with any system. Though a seemingly superior ideal, very few clubs can afford such a system, possibly not even Real Madrid or Manchester United.
In an earlier piece here on Off The Woodwork, I made the comment that Jurgen Klinsmann's performance with the US Mens National Team cannot be judged today, but will be judged in the future when the youth of today become the stars of the 2026 or 2030 World Cup. This is a slightly different spin on the concept that is my present topic, where you are not buying or scouting for a certain type of player, but scouting for a certain type of player while also trying to build those kinds of players from the lowest of youth levels on. Its an interesting sub topic, but the scope, desires, and challenges of national team scouting and identity differ in several ways to that of club football.
Over the years we have seen many clubs in English football reach the promised land of the top flight, only to change course midstream in order to play a more beautiful game. While the 70's, 80's, and 90's were littered with such clubs, I'd like to take a moment to look at two more recent top flight clubs to have the crisis of style, both concerning the aforementioned "Big Sam".
When "Big Sam" was appointed manager of West Ham United, many of the Hammers faithful were left uninspired. There was a famed academy at WHU, and the club was known for a certain style of play. Then in walked Sam, with a new vision. He pointed out that the beautiful football had seen the club relegated several times and seen many managers come and go based more on style than results. As the season has wound down many names have been floated as a replacement for Sam in the offseason, based on the desire of the fans to see something "worth watching". But the fact remains, WHU are in a solid place again in the EPL, with no danger of relegation or glory. The long ball football with occasional bursts of flair has worked. It gained promotion. It gained another season in the top flight.
Another link to the big man comes from the plight of Blackburn. Under Allardyce the club was consistently in the league. No glory, no threat of the drop. Then that was no longer good enough. The new owners of Blackburn (Venky's) wanted to play a more attractive and technical style of football. They wanted flair players like Ronaldinho to grace their pitch. In the short time since the replacement of "Big Sam", the club has gone through a succession of managers, been relegated once, and seem doomed to back-to-back relegations, finding them in England's League One, when they had been safely a top flight club just a few seasons before.
While this could be seen as a cautionary tale to anyone who employs Tony Pulis, Sam Allardyce, Alan Curbishly, or many other fine status quo managers, or any owner or chairman who fancies that their club starts playing beautiful football, I see this as a deeper issue than just the whim of a new ethos. I see this as a scouting failure at the deepest level. If a club, their fans, the owner, or the manager feel a change is needed once their "level" has been reached, be it top flight or just league football, there is no quick fix. Even bucket loads of cash aren't a quick fix if the infrastructure of the club is not properly supported for the desired changes.
Should Tony Pulis feel Stoke need a change, to be more attacking or skillful, as some of his purchases this past season seem to indicate, then shame on him for not effecting change from the bottom to the top himself. But also shame on Lindsay Parsons for not pushing harder with potential transfer targets that could affect that change. Shame on Parsons for not walking away from the job if it couldn't be done without a hand tied behind the back.
When it comes to changing the culture and style of any football club from what has gotten it promoted or solidified in a division, there is no quick fix. In my opinion it can only be done slowly, over years, with proper scouting from the youngest of youth to the most veteran first team player. There will be growing pains in such an endeavor, and perhaps some sliding down from the level the club has become accustomed to. But when it comes to addressing the style of any football club, I am of the firm belief that you need to scout the future, and if Tony Pulis finds himself looking for new employment, then so should Lindsay Parsons.
Until next time, I'll see you Off The Woodwork.
Sunday, March 31, 2013
The Klinsmann Dyslexicon
The beautiful game is beautiful in part because of all the differing opinions watching the exact same events through different eyes can generate. When looked at through the "American filter", we American football fans often come from a different mental space than many others. We view our first division not as a league, but as a league compared to the very best leagues on the planet. We view our national team not as what it is, but compare it to the very best national teams on the planet.
But America is not like any other nation on the planet. Comparing a league less than two decades old to ones over a hundred years old is nonsensical. Comparing a national team which most Americans didn't even know existed more than two decades ago to ones that have been an integral part of a nations sports and national identity is nothing more than a fools mission.
When judging the mission and performance of Jurgen Klinsmann as US Mens National Team manager, he can't be judged by a standard equal to that of a "footballing nation". But the fact remains, he needs to be judged. The question becomes, how do we judge him? Do we judge him based on the expectations of the fans, who we know already come to the equation with a slightly tilted view? Do we judge him based on his own proclamations and mission statements? Do we judge him based on the performances of past managers? Or can he only be judged several managers from now, as any manager should be judged, with time and hindsight allowed to cool heated feelings in the moment? For me, the answer to all of these questions is in fact, yes.
Welcome to the Klinsmann Dyslexicon.
The Optimist:
Taking an optimistic view of the aforementioned questions, the experiment that undoubtably is Jurgen Klinsmann as USMNT manager is already bearing results.
What do the fans of the US truly expect from their manager and their team? They expect qualification for the World Cup. They expect Gold Cup finals and occasional victories in those finals. They expect a team built to compete when at the World Cup. They expect to be the second best national team in the CONCACAF region, with a push being made to be the best. And they expect this on all levels, from youth to the senior team.
So far Klinsmann has to be getting a passing grade. He hasn't faced a Gold Cup competition yet, nor has he faced the daunting stage of the World Cup, the only expectation marker he has so far been able to face is that of World Cup qualification. If the World Cup were held tomorrow, based on current standings, the US would be in the World Cup. The first steps of the Klinsmann era must be considered a success.
If we judge Jurgen based on his own words, on what he saw for the future of the national team on all levels, we come back to the hindsight view. For now, he gets an incomplete, but there is a clear sense of change. The search for style and search across the globe for players with American ties is a simple and necessary step to developing a footballing nations mentality and identity.
If we judge Jurgen upon results, his own and those that came before him, again he is looking pretty good. While he had more losses during his run than Bob Bradley did during the best run of Bradley's career as manager, he also had more wins, creating the best win percentage of any manager in US history. He has us in the qualifying places (3rd) for the World Cup. In friendlies we defeated both Italy in Italy, and Mexico in Mexico. We also drew against Mexico in World Cup Qualification in Mexico for only the second time ever.
Based upon results, which many can argue is the only thing that matters in the end, the Klinsmann era has been nothing short of a smashing success. Taking the optimist view of the Jurgen era, there can be very little room for complaint. If you are a "glass half full" kind of person, you should be very happy with the beginning of the Kilnsmann experiment, and looking happily and positively to a future where we move toward bigger and better things, reaching the goals that we the fans, and Klinsmann himself have set.
The Pessimist:
Taking a more pessimistic view of the Klinsmann era, fans can not be very happy with the early results.
When Jurgen Klinsmann first arrived as US manager, he made a lot of statements that sounded great, but never came to fruition, leaving some to believe he is less savior than false messiah. He let it be known that he was on the look out for an assistant who knew the American game and mentality. A fresh perspective. In his first match, he did indeed hold true to his word and brought in assistants who knew MLS, the US players, and the US culture. He then turned around right after this brief experiment and appointed his old friend and assistant from his ill fated Bayern Munich adventure, Martin Vasquez. A Mexican turned American. (Much like Jurgen, a German who over the years has become very much American)
He also made promises about the style he intended to bring to the US. An attacking style in line with the way America viewed itself. A more beautiful style than what we had been known for. And in some ways he has been true to his word. He has tried out new formations and styles. The problem being, the results of those experiments were not the best, and far from beautiful.
When looking to the best results of the Klinsmann era, two friendly victories against Italy and Mexico, and a qualification draw against Mexico, the tactics and style the US employed in those matches were the same grind it out defensive strategy employed by Bob Bradley or Bruce Arena. Not exactly the change and fresh ideas promised. And worst of all, when asked what team would be seen as more intimidating, the best Bob Bradley team, one with pace and counter attacking ability, or the Klinsmann best, a defensive team hoping for a poached goal and opposition mistakes, the Bradley team would instill more fear. Not a promising thought at all.
Currently under Jurgen, the US finds itself in third place in CONCACAF World Cup qualification after 3 matches. A loss to Honduras in Honduras, a win against Costa Rica, and a draw against Mexico.
In the end, it doesn't matter if you finish first or if you finish third, or even if you finish fourth and only qualify for the World Cup after a home and home series with New Zealand, as long as you qualify. But taking a realistic view of those results, one shouldn't be filled with great confidence. Against Honduras the US looked lifeless and got the result they deserved. Against Costa Rica, a freak blizzard in Denver combined with a lucky bounce gained us 3 points. Against Mexico, referee error may have handed the US a point where one was not truly deserved in a third poor performance in three qualification matches. If the game was more just, the US would be looking from the outside in when it comes to qualification.
For a man who promised style and beauty while finding an American spirit in the game, Jurgen's actions have told a very different story. Over his reign we have seen width removed from our attack. We have seen multiple defensive minded midfielders employed at once. We have seen lone strikers cutting forlorn figures with no form of service. We have seen veterans questioned publicly or knee capped in front of the team. All worrying and disturbing signs that Klinsmann may indeed be nothing more than a snake oil salesman.
When the Brian Straus Sporting News article came out, (and thankfully woke up and unified the team result wise, if not in style of performance) no one claimed the basic facts of the article to be wrong. And according to Sports Illustrated journalist Grant Wahl, what upset Klinsmann most about the article was the rehashing of his time at Bayern Munich in its relation to his current US performance. In particular the mention of the Phillip Lahm book, in which Lahm claimed Kilnsmann to be tactically naive, and Martin Vasquez to be nothing more than a fitness guru and yoga instructor. The USMNT sources quoted in the article believed the Lahm book to be accurate, which seems to have hurt Klinsmann the most, but could be a worrying sign for the future of the US team under Klinsmann.
Based solely on performance, any fan of the US national team can not be excited about the way things have developed, and how the changes made have not been proven to be any form of improvement at all.
The Realist:
Taking a more realistic view of the Jurgen Klinsmann era, one may be inclined to say that his results with the USMNT, his meeting or failure to meet expectations, and his accuracy in delivering what he claimed he could, doesn't actually matter. Whether or not Klinsmann leads the US to qualification for the World Cup or doesn't, doesn't even matter.
There is only one way to judge Jurgen Klinsmann, and it's not even based upon the senior squad at all. The Under 17's and Under 21's (or 24's) are how we can judge Klinsmann. Do they qualify for CONCACAF and World tournaments? Are they playing with a more beautiful attacking style? Are they developing more technically?
The results of the senior squad in the 2026 and 2030 World Cups, populated almost solely with the players developed in the Jurgen era will tell us more about whether or not Jurgen Klinsmann is a genius, or a mad scientist.
Fans love to debate. Fans love to discuss. Fans love to gripe about the smallest issue or celebrate the most minor victory. But when it comes to Jurgen Klinsmann, we may very well be wasting our time. If Jurgen changes the DNA of the US set up as he believes he can, it won't change as quickly as it did with Germany. The chances are very good that if he delivers on his promise, someone else will be around to collect all the plaudits when the results are finally in. If he fails to deliver, he will have been long forgotten while new names and faces attempt to address the issues left behind.
We have to remember that the US is not Germany, or England, or France, or Italy, or even Mexico. The US is nothing more or less than the US, and we are not that far off from square one, as sad and frightening as that may be. But when considering where we are already in this still infantile state, and what potential we have, every US fan should be caught up in the rapture of glorious anticipation. Even if the Jurgen Kilnsmann experiment is a dire failure, things are not all that bad.
Over the years I have met many US fans who are eternal optimists. I've met many more who are eternal pessimists. I've rarely met what I would call eternal realists. But if what I project is true, in the end, the realists are more in line with the eternal optimists than they are the pessimists. And isn't that just a kick in the teeth, eh pessimists?
Until next time, I will see you Off The Woodwork.
But America is not like any other nation on the planet. Comparing a league less than two decades old to ones over a hundred years old is nonsensical. Comparing a national team which most Americans didn't even know existed more than two decades ago to ones that have been an integral part of a nations sports and national identity is nothing more than a fools mission.
When judging the mission and performance of Jurgen Klinsmann as US Mens National Team manager, he can't be judged by a standard equal to that of a "footballing nation". But the fact remains, he needs to be judged. The question becomes, how do we judge him? Do we judge him based on the expectations of the fans, who we know already come to the equation with a slightly tilted view? Do we judge him based on his own proclamations and mission statements? Do we judge him based on the performances of past managers? Or can he only be judged several managers from now, as any manager should be judged, with time and hindsight allowed to cool heated feelings in the moment? For me, the answer to all of these questions is in fact, yes.
Welcome to the Klinsmann Dyslexicon.
The Optimist:
Taking an optimistic view of the aforementioned questions, the experiment that undoubtably is Jurgen Klinsmann as USMNT manager is already bearing results.
What do the fans of the US truly expect from their manager and their team? They expect qualification for the World Cup. They expect Gold Cup finals and occasional victories in those finals. They expect a team built to compete when at the World Cup. They expect to be the second best national team in the CONCACAF region, with a push being made to be the best. And they expect this on all levels, from youth to the senior team.
So far Klinsmann has to be getting a passing grade. He hasn't faced a Gold Cup competition yet, nor has he faced the daunting stage of the World Cup, the only expectation marker he has so far been able to face is that of World Cup qualification. If the World Cup were held tomorrow, based on current standings, the US would be in the World Cup. The first steps of the Klinsmann era must be considered a success.
If we judge Jurgen based on his own words, on what he saw for the future of the national team on all levels, we come back to the hindsight view. For now, he gets an incomplete, but there is a clear sense of change. The search for style and search across the globe for players with American ties is a simple and necessary step to developing a footballing nations mentality and identity.
If we judge Jurgen upon results, his own and those that came before him, again he is looking pretty good. While he had more losses during his run than Bob Bradley did during the best run of Bradley's career as manager, he also had more wins, creating the best win percentage of any manager in US history. He has us in the qualifying places (3rd) for the World Cup. In friendlies we defeated both Italy in Italy, and Mexico in Mexico. We also drew against Mexico in World Cup Qualification in Mexico for only the second time ever.
Based upon results, which many can argue is the only thing that matters in the end, the Klinsmann era has been nothing short of a smashing success. Taking the optimist view of the Jurgen era, there can be very little room for complaint. If you are a "glass half full" kind of person, you should be very happy with the beginning of the Kilnsmann experiment, and looking happily and positively to a future where we move toward bigger and better things, reaching the goals that we the fans, and Klinsmann himself have set.
The Pessimist:
Taking a more pessimistic view of the Klinsmann era, fans can not be very happy with the early results.
When Jurgen Klinsmann first arrived as US manager, he made a lot of statements that sounded great, but never came to fruition, leaving some to believe he is less savior than false messiah. He let it be known that he was on the look out for an assistant who knew the American game and mentality. A fresh perspective. In his first match, he did indeed hold true to his word and brought in assistants who knew MLS, the US players, and the US culture. He then turned around right after this brief experiment and appointed his old friend and assistant from his ill fated Bayern Munich adventure, Martin Vasquez. A Mexican turned American. (Much like Jurgen, a German who over the years has become very much American)
He also made promises about the style he intended to bring to the US. An attacking style in line with the way America viewed itself. A more beautiful style than what we had been known for. And in some ways he has been true to his word. He has tried out new formations and styles. The problem being, the results of those experiments were not the best, and far from beautiful.
When looking to the best results of the Klinsmann era, two friendly victories against Italy and Mexico, and a qualification draw against Mexico, the tactics and style the US employed in those matches were the same grind it out defensive strategy employed by Bob Bradley or Bruce Arena. Not exactly the change and fresh ideas promised. And worst of all, when asked what team would be seen as more intimidating, the best Bob Bradley team, one with pace and counter attacking ability, or the Klinsmann best, a defensive team hoping for a poached goal and opposition mistakes, the Bradley team would instill more fear. Not a promising thought at all.
Currently under Jurgen, the US finds itself in third place in CONCACAF World Cup qualification after 3 matches. A loss to Honduras in Honduras, a win against Costa Rica, and a draw against Mexico.
In the end, it doesn't matter if you finish first or if you finish third, or even if you finish fourth and only qualify for the World Cup after a home and home series with New Zealand, as long as you qualify. But taking a realistic view of those results, one shouldn't be filled with great confidence. Against Honduras the US looked lifeless and got the result they deserved. Against Costa Rica, a freak blizzard in Denver combined with a lucky bounce gained us 3 points. Against Mexico, referee error may have handed the US a point where one was not truly deserved in a third poor performance in three qualification matches. If the game was more just, the US would be looking from the outside in when it comes to qualification.
For a man who promised style and beauty while finding an American spirit in the game, Jurgen's actions have told a very different story. Over his reign we have seen width removed from our attack. We have seen multiple defensive minded midfielders employed at once. We have seen lone strikers cutting forlorn figures with no form of service. We have seen veterans questioned publicly or knee capped in front of the team. All worrying and disturbing signs that Klinsmann may indeed be nothing more than a snake oil salesman.
When the Brian Straus Sporting News article came out, (and thankfully woke up and unified the team result wise, if not in style of performance) no one claimed the basic facts of the article to be wrong. And according to Sports Illustrated journalist Grant Wahl, what upset Klinsmann most about the article was the rehashing of his time at Bayern Munich in its relation to his current US performance. In particular the mention of the Phillip Lahm book, in which Lahm claimed Kilnsmann to be tactically naive, and Martin Vasquez to be nothing more than a fitness guru and yoga instructor. The USMNT sources quoted in the article believed the Lahm book to be accurate, which seems to have hurt Klinsmann the most, but could be a worrying sign for the future of the US team under Klinsmann.
Based solely on performance, any fan of the US national team can not be excited about the way things have developed, and how the changes made have not been proven to be any form of improvement at all.
The Realist:
Taking a more realistic view of the Jurgen Klinsmann era, one may be inclined to say that his results with the USMNT, his meeting or failure to meet expectations, and his accuracy in delivering what he claimed he could, doesn't actually matter. Whether or not Klinsmann leads the US to qualification for the World Cup or doesn't, doesn't even matter.
There is only one way to judge Jurgen Klinsmann, and it's not even based upon the senior squad at all. The Under 17's and Under 21's (or 24's) are how we can judge Klinsmann. Do they qualify for CONCACAF and World tournaments? Are they playing with a more beautiful attacking style? Are they developing more technically?
The results of the senior squad in the 2026 and 2030 World Cups, populated almost solely with the players developed in the Jurgen era will tell us more about whether or not Jurgen Klinsmann is a genius, or a mad scientist.
Fans love to debate. Fans love to discuss. Fans love to gripe about the smallest issue or celebrate the most minor victory. But when it comes to Jurgen Klinsmann, we may very well be wasting our time. If Jurgen changes the DNA of the US set up as he believes he can, it won't change as quickly as it did with Germany. The chances are very good that if he delivers on his promise, someone else will be around to collect all the plaudits when the results are finally in. If he fails to deliver, he will have been long forgotten while new names and faces attempt to address the issues left behind.
We have to remember that the US is not Germany, or England, or France, or Italy, or even Mexico. The US is nothing more or less than the US, and we are not that far off from square one, as sad and frightening as that may be. But when considering where we are already in this still infantile state, and what potential we have, every US fan should be caught up in the rapture of glorious anticipation. Even if the Jurgen Kilnsmann experiment is a dire failure, things are not all that bad.
Over the years I have met many US fans who are eternal optimists. I've met many more who are eternal pessimists. I've rarely met what I would call eternal realists. But if what I project is true, in the end, the realists are more in line with the eternal optimists than they are the pessimists. And isn't that just a kick in the teeth, eh pessimists?
Until next time, I will see you Off The Woodwork.
Thursday, March 8, 2012
OTW: MLS 2012 PREVIEW
It's that time of year again my friends, the birds begin to sing, the weather begins to warm, and MLS makes its long awaited comeback. As MLS turns 17 and nears adulthood, we have seen massive strides the past few seasons and the hope is that it is all just beginning.
For those not familiar with my MLS previews, I break down the biggest additions and subtractions to all the MLS clubs and predict where they will finish in their divisions. This season will see 10 teams make the playoffs, 5 in each conference, with the fourth and fifth seed facing a playoff to make the "real" playoffs. Looking back to last season (so you know how brilliant or idiotic my previews can be) I made some decent calls, but also some major blunders which I am more than willing to admit. I predicted Sporting Kansas City would be downright awful last season. I was half right. They started miserably with a glut of road games before turning it on at their new stadium and becoming one of the clubs to watch in MLS. I also said last season that New York Red Bulls were the best MLS team ever, on paper. Alas, the matches aren't played on paper, and New York was far from convincing, all the while LA Galaxy proved they were the best team ever in MLS, not on paper, but on the pitch. I predicted Philadelphia Union would be a laughing stock, and was proven horribly wrong, though I feel a one hit wonder in the making. I saw LA and Seattle as the best in the West, and Houston and New York as the best in the East. Three out of four isn't too bad.
Anyway, enough of the looking back, MLS has returned and it's time to look forward to another fantastic season. It's good to be back writing about the American league here at Off The Woodwork, and good to be back OTW at all. It's been far too long since I've written something for my own blog. Let's hope this is just a new beginning. And here we go...
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
LOS ANGELES GALAXY:
INS: David Beckham - M, Edson Buddle - F, Andrew Boyens - D, Juninho - M, Leanardo - D
OUTS: Gregg Berhalter - D, Donovan Ricketts - GK, Jovan Kirovski - M, Frankie "Hey Dude" Hejduk - D
I added Beckham, Juninho and Leanardo as additions because quite frankly, few expected any of them to return to LA this season. But the big news of the "ins" may be the return of Edson Buddle from his stint playing in the German second division for Audi's club. (Poor guy didn't even get to keep his free car) If Buddle can bring back even a portion of the form he had when he left LA, along with Robbie Keane for a full season, LA should have the most potent 1-2 scoring punch in MLS. Donovan, Beckham, Juninho, and McGee (when not played as a forward, or even a keeper) also seem to be one of the best mids in the league. The only question is the injury to Omar Gonzalez, last seasons MLS defender of the year. Can Boyens and Leonardo (himself recovering from injury) cover while Omar rehabilitates? LA has the toughest conference to battle through with the unbalanced schedule, but I think the greatest team in the history of MLS, on and off paper, has enough in the tank for one last go. CONCACAF Champions League may slow them down early, as would the departures of key veterans should the Olympics come calling, but with one season left with this group before Arena is forced to blow it up and rebuild due to cap restrictions, I think LA is still the class of the league. Finish: 1st in the West.
Seattle Sounders FC:
INS: Michael Gspurning - GK, Eddie Johnson - F
OUTS: Kasey Keller - GK, James Riley - D, Nate Jaqua - F, Erik Friberg - M, Mike Fucito - F, Lamar Neagle - M
The retirement of Kasey Keller alongside the trading of fan favorites Fucito and Neagle may be disruptive to Seattle early doors, but with a quality manager like Sigi Schmidt, Seattle still should be seen as a legitimate contender for the West and the MLS title. The move for Eddie Johnson to partner Colombian sensation Freddy Montero could be a stroke of genius that lifts them to the top, or an ill fated attempt to bring the magic back to a player whose own head took his career down the never ending spiral. I feel the deal could be a bit in the middle, leaving Seattle as a team nearly as great as their fans, but just shy. Finish: 2nd in the West.
FC Dallas:
INS: Blas Perez - F, Hernan Pertuz - D, Matt Hedges - D
OUTS: Maicon Santos - F, Jeremy Hall - D, Maykel Galindo - F, Marvin Chavez - M
Many in the US Soccer media have predicted the fall of FC Dallas this season. Wether they believe George John will depart and hurt the defense, or that Brek Shea will depart and harm the attack, I'm really not sure, but Dallas still has plenty of talent on the pitch, and with the addition of Perez, they may have the piece that allows them to rise above those around their level. Should their mid stay healthy, and the attack start from the fullbacks, (and should Shea learn to cross a ball) Dallas may prove their doubters wrong this season. Finish: Third in the West.
Real Salt Lake:
INS: Enzo Martinez - M
OUTS: Robbie Russell - D, Arturo Alvarez - M, Andy Williams - M
With some veteran players out of the way, we will get a good idea of just how good the young guns who were on the fringes of the squad last season and the new draft choices really are. A solid well coached team with a decent mix of veterans and youth, RSL should again be a top club out West, but unlike so many of their competitors, they seemed to stand pat instead of taking steps to move forward. I may be a little generous in my prediction, but with a solid team, solid manager, solid ownership, and solid fan support, RSL is still a force to be reckoned with. Finish Fourth in the West.
San Jose Earthquakes:
INS: Shea Salinas -M, Marvin Chavez - M, Victor Berardez - D
OUTS: Bobby Burling - D, Bobby Convey - M, Chris Leitch - D
San Jose are one of those clubs I always struggle to figure out. I think they are going to be great, and they suck. I think they will suck, and Wondolowski lights up the league. This season I'm going for a middle of the road guess, figuring I won't be too far off in either direction. With some decent veterans brought in to replace the ones who left, it should be an interesting season for the Quakes. Can Wondo do it again? Time will tell. Finish: Fifth in the West.
Portland Timbers:
INS: Kris Boyd - F, Jose Adolfo Valencia - F
OUTS: Kenny Cooper - F
I considered not even mentioning Valencia due to his injury, but he really is a key addition. He may not be playing, but just the fact that Portland is ready to make the splash with their forwards gives you a signal of intent. Kris Boyd is a Kenny Cooper plus for me, and should improve the Timbers just enough to help them fight for the final playoff spot. The squad will have a full season under their belts together in MLS, and this could be a year to watch the Timbers for reasons other than the guy who cuts the wood after a goal. Finish: Sixth in the West.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC:
INS: Lee Young-Pyo - D, Darren Mattocks - F, Sebastian Le Toux - F, Barry Robson - M
OUTS: Shea Salinas - M, Peter Vegenas - M, Jay Nolly - GK
Vancouver has improved in their second season. Of that, there should be no doubt. But just how good can they be? Can they really be in a fight for the final playoff place in the West as the season nears its climax? I think they can. And with 500 forwards all fighting for playing time, who won't enjoy the final 10 minutes of matches when Vancouver goes to a 3-2-5 formation? Le Toux was a steal. Mattocks could be special, and with the depth they have up front, he should get time to bed in. Robson will not be arriving until the summer, so that may be the final piece of the puzzle between them and a playoff berth. For me his arrival will be just a little bit too late. Finish: Seventh in the West.
Colorado Rapids:
INS: Hunter Freeman - D, Martin Rivero - M
OUTS: Sanna Nyassi - M, Caleb Folan - F, Macoumba Kandji - F/M
I won't lie, I've never really cared for Colorado Rapids. They are the type of team that Big Sam would look at and turn the TV off in favor of a nap. Plodding and physical, I think time has passed some of their players by, and this could be a rough season for the Rapids in the toughest conference in MLS. If Portland and Vancouver can come to life this season, this could be a long year for Rapids fans. Finish: Eighth in the West.
Chivas USA:
INS: James Riley - D, Oswaldo Minda - M, Miller Bolanos - M, Casey Townsend - F, Peter Vegenas - M
OUTS: Justin Bruan - F, Zarek Valentin - D, Paulo Nagamura - M, Andrew Boyens - D, Zach Thornton - GK, Victor Estupinan - F
Lots of changes at Chivas again, but like their namesake from Mexico, they suck. Period. If you want to see the worst team in MLS history in the modern era, you may have found it. Finish: Ninth in the West.
EASTERN CONFERENCE:
Houston Dynamo:
INS: Brian Ching - F, Macoumba Kandji - F, Nathan Sturgis - M
OUTS: Hunter Freeman - D, Eddie Robinson -D, Brian Ching -F
Yes, I listed Ching as an in and an out. If you don't know the drama that went on with Ching being drafted away and then traded back to Houston, you missed one heck of an MLS soap opera. Read up on it. Anyway, the attack for Houston will surely be better with the addition of Kandji and the return of Ching for a final hurrah. Sturgis is a serviceable midfielder, and for my money Dominic Kinnear is one of the best managers in the country. Their defense may be suspect, and they may stumble out of the blocks waiting for their new stadium to open it's doors, but over the long hard season, Houston should come out top of the East. With the unbalanced schedule, they will get to beat up on the bottom feeders out East while the Western teams do battle week in and week out. Finish: First in the East.
New York Red Bulls:
INS: Markus Holgersson - D, Wilman Conde - D, Victor Palsson - M, Kenny Cooper - F
OUTS: Tyler Lassiter - D, John Rooney - M, Frank Rost - GK, Chris Albright - D, Bouna Coundoul - GK, Tim Ream - D
One thing we know for certain is that NY's defense just got BIGGER. With the mountains joined in defense, a nightclub pisser in the mid, and the block head of Cooper up front, New York may finally be ready to take the step their talent suggests of them. Then again, they are NY Red Bull. Between hans Backe and Red Bull itself, MLS is still a mystery. Backe and Red Bull also don't seem to have much faith in anyone not closing in on their pension. Over the long road that is the MLS season, Red Bull should benefit from the weaker Eastern Conference. If not, Backe will need to go. Then again, I think I said this last season as well. Finish: Second in the East.
Sporting Kansas City:
INS: Paulo Nagamura - M, Bobby Convey - M, Dom Dwyer - F
OUTS: Davy Arnaud - M, Omar Bravo - F
This season I am not a KC doubter. I believe in the youth they possess, and the additions of solid veteran talent to their mid can only be a help over the course of an MLS season. If you are new to MLS and don't want to jump on a glory team like LA, NY, or the support bandwagon of Seattle or Portland, KC may be the club for you. With the talent to play just about any way they like, this could be the year KC puts together a run from start to finish. Teal Bunbury is ready to make his breakthrough, and the rest of their young talent are pushing him all along the way. Finish: Third in the East.
DC United:
INS: Robbie Russell - D, Maicon Santos - F, Emiliano Dudar - D, Hamid Salihi - F, Marcello Saragosa - M
OUTS: Santino Quaranta - M, Clyde Simms - M, Steve Cronin - GK, Charlie Davies - F
After the disaster that was the "bring back the glory days through management" fiasco, Ben Olsen has finally settled in with DC and has really improved his squad this off season. While he has gone for foreign experience, not always the best choice in MLS, he also went with proven veterans of the league. Look for the spine of the team to be more solid than it was last season, and with Perry Kitchen one season wiser, DC could be back in the playoffs again after what seems like an eternity without. Finish: Fourth in the East.
Toronto FC:
INS: Jeremy Hall - D, Reggie Lambe - M
OUTS: Nathan Sturgis -M, Andy Iro - D
For the past several seasons we have all been waiting for Toronto to make the playoffs. From the outside they seem like a well run club, but season after season they just don't have what it takes to take the next step in their development as an MLS franchise. With solid defensive addition this season in Hall, Caciedo, and Aceval, this could finally be the year they give the supporters what they deserve. Being in the East won't hurt their chances of finally breaking through. I thought long and hard about this before I made my prediction because you never know in MLS, especially the East, but here it is... Finish: Fifth in the East (And their first playoff appearance.)
Columbus Crew:
INS: Milovan Mirosevic - M, Olman Vargas - F
OUTS: Jeff Ciningham - F, Robbie Rogers - M, Emmanuel Ekpo - M
In the West, I would foresee a horrible year ahead of Crew fans, but being in the East, you can never count them out. While most of the remnants of their last MLS Cup win are now long gone, they still have a solid core and a decent manager in the "Polish Rifle". The subtraction of Rogers seems like a big one to me, but reality is that Columbus was trying to show him the door all of last season, which could have been a bit of a distraction for the team. A lot will ride on the new signings. In the end, they should have the fighting spirit to achieve, but perhaps not the talent. Finish: Sixth in the East.
Chicago Fire:
INS: Kheli Dube - F, Rafael Robayo - M, Frederico Puppo - F, Arne Friedrich - D
OUTS: Baggio Husidic - M, Jon Conway - GK, Diego Chavez - F
Down in the dumps for the past few seasons, this is the year Chicago finally shows signs of life. With quality additions to their attack, mid, and defense, things have to be looking up. The biggest addition may be the newest, that of Friedrich to the defense. Chicago has needed a strong steady hand in the back, and the big German may be it. While I can't say this will be the year they break back into the playoffs, I do believe they will be in the hunt until the bitter end. Finish: Seventh in the East.
Philadelphia Union:
INS: Jose Martinez - F, Chandler Hoffman - F, Chris Albright - D, Gabriel Gomez - M, Porfirio Lopez - D
OUTS: Justin Mapp - M, Faryd Mondragon - GK, Sebastian Le Toux - F
While the new additions to the squad look good on paper, we know the game isn't played there. Losing 3 high quality players is never a good sign, and yet again it looks like Philly is building toward the future and not this season. 3 years from now they could be a contender for the title, but for now, I think they will fight long and hard in a weak conference, but won't have enough to build upon what the did last season. Finish: Eighth in the East.
New England Revolution:
INS: Nate Jaqua - F, Clyde Simms - D, John Lazano - D, Fernando Cardenas - M/F
OUTS: Pat Phelan - M, Kheli Dube - F
The biggest "out" for the Revs is not a player, but their manager, with the departure of Steve Nicol. Jay Heaps has stepped in unproven and untested, but his early moves show some promise. While any team with Shalrie Joseph should be a scrappy and tough team, I see New England as a project like DC was last season. Still a year away from truly making waves, the Revs will be dwelling near the basement most of the season. Finish: Ninth in the East.
Montreal Impact:
INS: Nelson Rivas - D, Justin Mapp - M, Sanna Nyassi - M, Zarek Valentin - D, Justin Braun - F, Tyson Wall - D, Davy Arnuad - M, Donovan Ricketts - GK, Greg Sutton - GK, Andrew Wenger - F, Callum Mallace - M, Mike Frucito - F, Lamar Neagle - M
OUTS: Brian Ching - F, Eddie Johnson - F
The debut squad for the Impact seems to be a good one on paper, but the players need to adjust to each other, as well as a new environment like French Canada. Most new franchises struggle to get their feet under them, losing on the road and battling hard for points at home. Montreal should be no different. Mapp, Arnuad, Nyassi, Mallace, and Neagle make mid combinations that any MLS team should be happy with, but the unproven talent that is Wenger as well as the potential star that is Braun still looking to break out, the forward line is still a question for me. While Mapp and Arnuad have the experience, Nyassi the pace, and Mallace and Neagle the youth, if the goals aren't getting scored and they are being let in in the back, it could make for a difficult debut season. Ricketts is a quality veteran keeper, but the defense may be past their best or unproven. Look for Montreal to be in games, just not winning many. Finish: Tenth in the East.
So there you have it, the major "ins" and "outs" as well as my predicted finishes, but football is about more than just the match or two that come each week. This season should have many interesting subplots I hope you keep an eye on, as well as a few surprises that always spring up along the way.
Will Brian Ching go out with a bang as Houston finally open their new and improved stadium? Will the usual suspects of top managers like Bruce Arena (LA), Sigi Schmidt (Seattle) and Dominic Kinnear (Houston) raise the trophy this season? Or will a new breed start to take over for the legends? Will 3 at the back take hold in MLS, or will 4-4-2 still control the day? Can LA dominate the league while also trying to fight hard on the CCL front while also losing players to injury or the Olympics? Will the young stars continue to grow, like Brek Shea (Dallas), a trio of young talent with KC, Perry Kitchen (DC), Juan Agudelo (NY), etc. Will Steve Zakuani (Seattle) come back as amazing as he was before his horrific leg break? Will this be the year of the Colombian in MLS? Will the Portland/Vancouver/Seattle rivalry still be the best in the league from a fervent fan perspective, or will Toronto/Vancouver/Montreal kick it up a notch? Who will be the first manager out the door? What "name" signings will arrive in the summer transfer window the way Robbie Keane (LA) arrived last season?
As the style of play improves, the fans become more and more involved, and the league looks to become the best in North America, will the seventeenth season be the most memorable yet in MLS?
I hope you watch. I hope you get involved in the passion. I hope you help this league continue to make strides in the right direction. Yes, there is still plenty wrong with MLS, but would it be as much fun if it was perfect?
I'm sure most of my predictions will seem laughable within a month, genius within three, and laughable again in five, but that's why we love it right? She's a fickle old game. But boy is she beautiful.
Until next time, I will see you Off The Woodwork.
For those not familiar with my MLS previews, I break down the biggest additions and subtractions to all the MLS clubs and predict where they will finish in their divisions. This season will see 10 teams make the playoffs, 5 in each conference, with the fourth and fifth seed facing a playoff to make the "real" playoffs. Looking back to last season (so you know how brilliant or idiotic my previews can be) I made some decent calls, but also some major blunders which I am more than willing to admit. I predicted Sporting Kansas City would be downright awful last season. I was half right. They started miserably with a glut of road games before turning it on at their new stadium and becoming one of the clubs to watch in MLS. I also said last season that New York Red Bulls were the best MLS team ever, on paper. Alas, the matches aren't played on paper, and New York was far from convincing, all the while LA Galaxy proved they were the best team ever in MLS, not on paper, but on the pitch. I predicted Philadelphia Union would be a laughing stock, and was proven horribly wrong, though I feel a one hit wonder in the making. I saw LA and Seattle as the best in the West, and Houston and New York as the best in the East. Three out of four isn't too bad.
Anyway, enough of the looking back, MLS has returned and it's time to look forward to another fantastic season. It's good to be back writing about the American league here at Off The Woodwork, and good to be back OTW at all. It's been far too long since I've written something for my own blog. Let's hope this is just a new beginning. And here we go...
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
LOS ANGELES GALAXY:
INS: David Beckham - M, Edson Buddle - F, Andrew Boyens - D, Juninho - M, Leanardo - D
OUTS: Gregg Berhalter - D, Donovan Ricketts - GK, Jovan Kirovski - M, Frankie "Hey Dude" Hejduk - D
I added Beckham, Juninho and Leanardo as additions because quite frankly, few expected any of them to return to LA this season. But the big news of the "ins" may be the return of Edson Buddle from his stint playing in the German second division for Audi's club. (Poor guy didn't even get to keep his free car) If Buddle can bring back even a portion of the form he had when he left LA, along with Robbie Keane for a full season, LA should have the most potent 1-2 scoring punch in MLS. Donovan, Beckham, Juninho, and McGee (when not played as a forward, or even a keeper) also seem to be one of the best mids in the league. The only question is the injury to Omar Gonzalez, last seasons MLS defender of the year. Can Boyens and Leonardo (himself recovering from injury) cover while Omar rehabilitates? LA has the toughest conference to battle through with the unbalanced schedule, but I think the greatest team in the history of MLS, on and off paper, has enough in the tank for one last go. CONCACAF Champions League may slow them down early, as would the departures of key veterans should the Olympics come calling, but with one season left with this group before Arena is forced to blow it up and rebuild due to cap restrictions, I think LA is still the class of the league. Finish: 1st in the West.
Seattle Sounders FC:
INS: Michael Gspurning - GK, Eddie Johnson - F
OUTS: Kasey Keller - GK, James Riley - D, Nate Jaqua - F, Erik Friberg - M, Mike Fucito - F, Lamar Neagle - M
The retirement of Kasey Keller alongside the trading of fan favorites Fucito and Neagle may be disruptive to Seattle early doors, but with a quality manager like Sigi Schmidt, Seattle still should be seen as a legitimate contender for the West and the MLS title. The move for Eddie Johnson to partner Colombian sensation Freddy Montero could be a stroke of genius that lifts them to the top, or an ill fated attempt to bring the magic back to a player whose own head took his career down the never ending spiral. I feel the deal could be a bit in the middle, leaving Seattle as a team nearly as great as their fans, but just shy. Finish: 2nd in the West.
FC Dallas:
INS: Blas Perez - F, Hernan Pertuz - D, Matt Hedges - D
OUTS: Maicon Santos - F, Jeremy Hall - D, Maykel Galindo - F, Marvin Chavez - M
Many in the US Soccer media have predicted the fall of FC Dallas this season. Wether they believe George John will depart and hurt the defense, or that Brek Shea will depart and harm the attack, I'm really not sure, but Dallas still has plenty of talent on the pitch, and with the addition of Perez, they may have the piece that allows them to rise above those around their level. Should their mid stay healthy, and the attack start from the fullbacks, (and should Shea learn to cross a ball) Dallas may prove their doubters wrong this season. Finish: Third in the West.
Real Salt Lake:
INS: Enzo Martinez - M
OUTS: Robbie Russell - D, Arturo Alvarez - M, Andy Williams - M
With some veteran players out of the way, we will get a good idea of just how good the young guns who were on the fringes of the squad last season and the new draft choices really are. A solid well coached team with a decent mix of veterans and youth, RSL should again be a top club out West, but unlike so many of their competitors, they seemed to stand pat instead of taking steps to move forward. I may be a little generous in my prediction, but with a solid team, solid manager, solid ownership, and solid fan support, RSL is still a force to be reckoned with. Finish Fourth in the West.
San Jose Earthquakes:
INS: Shea Salinas -M, Marvin Chavez - M, Victor Berardez - D
OUTS: Bobby Burling - D, Bobby Convey - M, Chris Leitch - D
San Jose are one of those clubs I always struggle to figure out. I think they are going to be great, and they suck. I think they will suck, and Wondolowski lights up the league. This season I'm going for a middle of the road guess, figuring I won't be too far off in either direction. With some decent veterans brought in to replace the ones who left, it should be an interesting season for the Quakes. Can Wondo do it again? Time will tell. Finish: Fifth in the West.
Portland Timbers:
INS: Kris Boyd - F, Jose Adolfo Valencia - F
OUTS: Kenny Cooper - F
I considered not even mentioning Valencia due to his injury, but he really is a key addition. He may not be playing, but just the fact that Portland is ready to make the splash with their forwards gives you a signal of intent. Kris Boyd is a Kenny Cooper plus for me, and should improve the Timbers just enough to help them fight for the final playoff spot. The squad will have a full season under their belts together in MLS, and this could be a year to watch the Timbers for reasons other than the guy who cuts the wood after a goal. Finish: Sixth in the West.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC:
INS: Lee Young-Pyo - D, Darren Mattocks - F, Sebastian Le Toux - F, Barry Robson - M
OUTS: Shea Salinas - M, Peter Vegenas - M, Jay Nolly - GK
Vancouver has improved in their second season. Of that, there should be no doubt. But just how good can they be? Can they really be in a fight for the final playoff place in the West as the season nears its climax? I think they can. And with 500 forwards all fighting for playing time, who won't enjoy the final 10 minutes of matches when Vancouver goes to a 3-2-5 formation? Le Toux was a steal. Mattocks could be special, and with the depth they have up front, he should get time to bed in. Robson will not be arriving until the summer, so that may be the final piece of the puzzle between them and a playoff berth. For me his arrival will be just a little bit too late. Finish: Seventh in the West.
Colorado Rapids:
INS: Hunter Freeman - D, Martin Rivero - M
OUTS: Sanna Nyassi - M, Caleb Folan - F, Macoumba Kandji - F/M
I won't lie, I've never really cared for Colorado Rapids. They are the type of team that Big Sam would look at and turn the TV off in favor of a nap. Plodding and physical, I think time has passed some of their players by, and this could be a rough season for the Rapids in the toughest conference in MLS. If Portland and Vancouver can come to life this season, this could be a long year for Rapids fans. Finish: Eighth in the West.
Chivas USA:
INS: James Riley - D, Oswaldo Minda - M, Miller Bolanos - M, Casey Townsend - F, Peter Vegenas - M
OUTS: Justin Bruan - F, Zarek Valentin - D, Paulo Nagamura - M, Andrew Boyens - D, Zach Thornton - GK, Victor Estupinan - F
Lots of changes at Chivas again, but like their namesake from Mexico, they suck. Period. If you want to see the worst team in MLS history in the modern era, you may have found it. Finish: Ninth in the West.
EASTERN CONFERENCE:
Houston Dynamo:
INS: Brian Ching - F, Macoumba Kandji - F, Nathan Sturgis - M
OUTS: Hunter Freeman - D, Eddie Robinson -D, Brian Ching -F
Yes, I listed Ching as an in and an out. If you don't know the drama that went on with Ching being drafted away and then traded back to Houston, you missed one heck of an MLS soap opera. Read up on it. Anyway, the attack for Houston will surely be better with the addition of Kandji and the return of Ching for a final hurrah. Sturgis is a serviceable midfielder, and for my money Dominic Kinnear is one of the best managers in the country. Their defense may be suspect, and they may stumble out of the blocks waiting for their new stadium to open it's doors, but over the long hard season, Houston should come out top of the East. With the unbalanced schedule, they will get to beat up on the bottom feeders out East while the Western teams do battle week in and week out. Finish: First in the East.
New York Red Bulls:
INS: Markus Holgersson - D, Wilman Conde - D, Victor Palsson - M, Kenny Cooper - F
OUTS: Tyler Lassiter - D, John Rooney - M, Frank Rost - GK, Chris Albright - D, Bouna Coundoul - GK, Tim Ream - D
One thing we know for certain is that NY's defense just got BIGGER. With the mountains joined in defense, a nightclub pisser in the mid, and the block head of Cooper up front, New York may finally be ready to take the step their talent suggests of them. Then again, they are NY Red Bull. Between hans Backe and Red Bull itself, MLS is still a mystery. Backe and Red Bull also don't seem to have much faith in anyone not closing in on their pension. Over the long road that is the MLS season, Red Bull should benefit from the weaker Eastern Conference. If not, Backe will need to go. Then again, I think I said this last season as well. Finish: Second in the East.
Sporting Kansas City:
INS: Paulo Nagamura - M, Bobby Convey - M, Dom Dwyer - F
OUTS: Davy Arnaud - M, Omar Bravo - F
This season I am not a KC doubter. I believe in the youth they possess, and the additions of solid veteran talent to their mid can only be a help over the course of an MLS season. If you are new to MLS and don't want to jump on a glory team like LA, NY, or the support bandwagon of Seattle or Portland, KC may be the club for you. With the talent to play just about any way they like, this could be the year KC puts together a run from start to finish. Teal Bunbury is ready to make his breakthrough, and the rest of their young talent are pushing him all along the way. Finish: Third in the East.
DC United:
INS: Robbie Russell - D, Maicon Santos - F, Emiliano Dudar - D, Hamid Salihi - F, Marcello Saragosa - M
OUTS: Santino Quaranta - M, Clyde Simms - M, Steve Cronin - GK, Charlie Davies - F
After the disaster that was the "bring back the glory days through management" fiasco, Ben Olsen has finally settled in with DC and has really improved his squad this off season. While he has gone for foreign experience, not always the best choice in MLS, he also went with proven veterans of the league. Look for the spine of the team to be more solid than it was last season, and with Perry Kitchen one season wiser, DC could be back in the playoffs again after what seems like an eternity without. Finish: Fourth in the East.
Toronto FC:
INS: Jeremy Hall - D, Reggie Lambe - M
OUTS: Nathan Sturgis -M, Andy Iro - D
For the past several seasons we have all been waiting for Toronto to make the playoffs. From the outside they seem like a well run club, but season after season they just don't have what it takes to take the next step in their development as an MLS franchise. With solid defensive addition this season in Hall, Caciedo, and Aceval, this could finally be the year they give the supporters what they deserve. Being in the East won't hurt their chances of finally breaking through. I thought long and hard about this before I made my prediction because you never know in MLS, especially the East, but here it is... Finish: Fifth in the East (And their first playoff appearance.)
Columbus Crew:
INS: Milovan Mirosevic - M, Olman Vargas - F
OUTS: Jeff Ciningham - F, Robbie Rogers - M, Emmanuel Ekpo - M
In the West, I would foresee a horrible year ahead of Crew fans, but being in the East, you can never count them out. While most of the remnants of their last MLS Cup win are now long gone, they still have a solid core and a decent manager in the "Polish Rifle". The subtraction of Rogers seems like a big one to me, but reality is that Columbus was trying to show him the door all of last season, which could have been a bit of a distraction for the team. A lot will ride on the new signings. In the end, they should have the fighting spirit to achieve, but perhaps not the talent. Finish: Sixth in the East.
Chicago Fire:
INS: Kheli Dube - F, Rafael Robayo - M, Frederico Puppo - F, Arne Friedrich - D
OUTS: Baggio Husidic - M, Jon Conway - GK, Diego Chavez - F
Down in the dumps for the past few seasons, this is the year Chicago finally shows signs of life. With quality additions to their attack, mid, and defense, things have to be looking up. The biggest addition may be the newest, that of Friedrich to the defense. Chicago has needed a strong steady hand in the back, and the big German may be it. While I can't say this will be the year they break back into the playoffs, I do believe they will be in the hunt until the bitter end. Finish: Seventh in the East.
Philadelphia Union:
INS: Jose Martinez - F, Chandler Hoffman - F, Chris Albright - D, Gabriel Gomez - M, Porfirio Lopez - D
OUTS: Justin Mapp - M, Faryd Mondragon - GK, Sebastian Le Toux - F
While the new additions to the squad look good on paper, we know the game isn't played there. Losing 3 high quality players is never a good sign, and yet again it looks like Philly is building toward the future and not this season. 3 years from now they could be a contender for the title, but for now, I think they will fight long and hard in a weak conference, but won't have enough to build upon what the did last season. Finish: Eighth in the East.
New England Revolution:
INS: Nate Jaqua - F, Clyde Simms - D, John Lazano - D, Fernando Cardenas - M/F
OUTS: Pat Phelan - M, Kheli Dube - F
The biggest "out" for the Revs is not a player, but their manager, with the departure of Steve Nicol. Jay Heaps has stepped in unproven and untested, but his early moves show some promise. While any team with Shalrie Joseph should be a scrappy and tough team, I see New England as a project like DC was last season. Still a year away from truly making waves, the Revs will be dwelling near the basement most of the season. Finish: Ninth in the East.
Montreal Impact:
INS: Nelson Rivas - D, Justin Mapp - M, Sanna Nyassi - M, Zarek Valentin - D, Justin Braun - F, Tyson Wall - D, Davy Arnuad - M, Donovan Ricketts - GK, Greg Sutton - GK, Andrew Wenger - F, Callum Mallace - M, Mike Frucito - F, Lamar Neagle - M
OUTS: Brian Ching - F, Eddie Johnson - F
The debut squad for the Impact seems to be a good one on paper, but the players need to adjust to each other, as well as a new environment like French Canada. Most new franchises struggle to get their feet under them, losing on the road and battling hard for points at home. Montreal should be no different. Mapp, Arnuad, Nyassi, Mallace, and Neagle make mid combinations that any MLS team should be happy with, but the unproven talent that is Wenger as well as the potential star that is Braun still looking to break out, the forward line is still a question for me. While Mapp and Arnuad have the experience, Nyassi the pace, and Mallace and Neagle the youth, if the goals aren't getting scored and they are being let in in the back, it could make for a difficult debut season. Ricketts is a quality veteran keeper, but the defense may be past their best or unproven. Look for Montreal to be in games, just not winning many. Finish: Tenth in the East.
So there you have it, the major "ins" and "outs" as well as my predicted finishes, but football is about more than just the match or two that come each week. This season should have many interesting subplots I hope you keep an eye on, as well as a few surprises that always spring up along the way.
Will Brian Ching go out with a bang as Houston finally open their new and improved stadium? Will the usual suspects of top managers like Bruce Arena (LA), Sigi Schmidt (Seattle) and Dominic Kinnear (Houston) raise the trophy this season? Or will a new breed start to take over for the legends? Will 3 at the back take hold in MLS, or will 4-4-2 still control the day? Can LA dominate the league while also trying to fight hard on the CCL front while also losing players to injury or the Olympics? Will the young stars continue to grow, like Brek Shea (Dallas), a trio of young talent with KC, Perry Kitchen (DC), Juan Agudelo (NY), etc. Will Steve Zakuani (Seattle) come back as amazing as he was before his horrific leg break? Will this be the year of the Colombian in MLS? Will the Portland/Vancouver/Seattle rivalry still be the best in the league from a fervent fan perspective, or will Toronto/Vancouver/Montreal kick it up a notch? Who will be the first manager out the door? What "name" signings will arrive in the summer transfer window the way Robbie Keane (LA) arrived last season?
As the style of play improves, the fans become more and more involved, and the league looks to become the best in North America, will the seventeenth season be the most memorable yet in MLS?
I hope you watch. I hope you get involved in the passion. I hope you help this league continue to make strides in the right direction. Yes, there is still plenty wrong with MLS, but would it be as much fun if it was perfect?
I'm sure most of my predictions will seem laughable within a month, genius within three, and laughable again in five, but that's why we love it right? She's a fickle old game. But boy is she beautiful.
Until next time, I will see you Off The Woodwork.
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